An Evolving Exploration into the Head, Heart and Hands of Energy Descent
Energy Beyond Oil - Paul Mobbs (2005)
Energy Beyond Oil - Paul Mobbs. Matador Press (2005)
The world energy situation is changing rapidly, and not for the better. Oil prices are rising and rising, and as I write, the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita looks likely to be far worse than we are presently being led to believe. The impact of high petrol prices are starting to be felt in the economy here, and will continue to be indefinitely. At the same time, new books on the whole issue of Peak Oil and energy seem to emerge every week. Most of them are produced in the US, and I have noticed that among those of us in the UK who are interested in this whole issue there is a tendency to take the challenges put forward for the US as being literally the same as the UK and Ireland. Will Los Angeles really face the exact same issues at Hull? Will Clonakilty be affected in the same way as Denver? Many US Peak Oil books, such as James Howard Kunster’s ‘The Long Emergency’, are very US-centric, and have very little to say about how it will affect the rest of the world.
Paul Mobbs’ book is (as far as I know) the first UK Peak Oil book, and it is very highly recommended. The great thing about it is that he has really done his homework, and presents his arguments backed up with a wealth of figures and statistics. How much land would it take to grow enough biodiesel to run the average family car? 0.85 hectares, or 1 ha. with reduced fertiliser inputs. How long would it take to retrofit all the housing stock in the UK? Given that the building industry could insulate 350,000 buildings per year, to do the 25 million households in the UK would take 71.4 years. This is vital information, and Mobbs paints a meticulous picture of the scale of the problem facing us, in a clear and analytical way.
He starts by asking “what is it about oil?�, and sets out very accessibly what oil is, how it forms, and why it is such an extraordinary material. He goes on to look at how the UK uses energy, and also gives a very useful guide to energy for the uninitiated, what is a joule and so on. He examines the whole question of Peak Oil, referring to the wide divergence of opinions as to when the peak might come, although he himself refuses to be drawn as to when he thinks the peak might be. For the uninitiated, he sets out very simply the crux of what Peak Oil is; “we shouldn’t worry about the oil running out, but the fact that it will get very expensive long before then�. He states that the peak will probably come within the next 10 years, which I think personally is a very optimistic view. He often refers to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy as being gospel on the matter, whereas many analysts believe their data to be deeply flawed, and more aimed at what the market wants to hear than what is actually the case. There is an equally strong argument that we are either at the peak now or have already peaked, indeed the damage in the gulf of Mexico could well mean that in hindsight we actually peaked last year.
In any case, the exact date of the peak is irrelevant, little more than an intellectual curiosity. The Hirsch Report, commissioned by the US Department of Energy to evaluate how much in advance the US would need to start preparing for Peak Oil, and then suppressed on its publication stated that “…the peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peakingâ€?.
“More than a decade in advance�. It is worth repeating. Mobbs looks at energy policy in the UK and how it is formulated, and then goes on to look at our various energy sources. He looks at nuclear, oil and coal, then the alternatives. I was unaware until I read this that the figures put out by the UK government for how much energy comes from renewable sources is grossly misleading, as 45.55 peta joules of it comes from landfill gas, 34.29 from waste and tyre incineration, 6.91 from sewage gas and 25.71 from poultry litter and straw. The remainder, the things we could generally consider to be renewables, solar, hydro etc, only comprise 36.85. His appraisal of the different options are backed up with much number-crunching, and reach the conclusion that there is no combination of renewables that will allow us to continue as we are.
He dedicates a whole chapter to the question ‘how much do we need to cut?’, looking at the required reduction in consumption that Peak Oil will make necessary. His conclusion is that within 50 years, we will move from an average consumption of 4 tons of oil equivalent (toe.) per person, to 1 ton, a cut of 75%. He is very realistic about the scale of the challenge this presents, and avoids the apocalyptic language used by authors such as James Howard Kunstler and Matt Savinar, saying “what we need to do is advance these debates past the negative concepts of crunch or catastrophe, and instead look to more positive ideas such as change and development�. “It’s not possible�, he says, “to say that reducing energy use by 75% is impossible, or would mean the end of our civilisation, because a large number of people around the world already live at or below this level of energy consumption�.
He goes on to look at other parts of the world where consumption is at these levels, some of which have a climate comparable to the UK. This leads him into what for me is the crux of the book, his point that “people who live on 1 toe. or less of energy each year have something of great value that we don’t possess – practical knowledge�. We have, since the Industrial Revolution, succeeded in taking a diverse, highly skilled rural economy and throwing it into the dustbin. It took a few decades to unravel, but will be extremely difficult to recreate. It could turn out to have been our most costly mistake. Edward O. Wilson, the origin of the term ‘biodiversity’ once wrote that “ the sign of intelligent tinkering is that you keep all the bits� (or words to that effect).
One thing that really struck me was two models that he does to show how things could pan out over the next century. The first one he call ‘Burn Everything’ which involves using up all the coal we can, all the nuclear power, oil, anything that will burn basically. The second, ‘Reduce and Renewable’, looks at reducing demand by 60% through efficiency and conservation, and providing the remaining 40% with renewables (deleted section…). What is interesting is that at the end of the two of them, we end up, by the end of this century at the same place in terms of available energy and percentage of energy derived from renewables, only with one we have an uninhabitable planet.
Where it all gets particularly interesting for those of us in the permaculture movement is in the last chapter when he calls for a philosophy in order to carry us through this period. What he is calling for sounds like permaculture to me, although he doesn’t actually mention the p word. I think that there are a lot of people now aware of the impending challenges we face, and who are starting to look for a way through it all but who have never heard of permaculture. It feels to me like this is our opportunity to shift permaculture up a gear, with allies like Mobbs and with peak oil as the wider rallying issue. Although his solutions for energy are excellent, he doesn’t have much to say on food, water, building, local economics and so on, which is where we come in.
This is a pivotally important book. It is not alarmist, it is not gloom and doom, but it is an extremely well researched and well considered look at what Peak Oil will mean to the UK. Maybe the impacts of oil in the UK will be the same as in the US, indeed Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil believes that the UK will suffer more than most other Eropean countries due to its being more economically intertwined with the US. Whereas Kunstler’s ‘The Long Emergency’ assumes the worst because the author credits human beings with no creativity, ingenuity, compassion or adaptability, Mobbs takes a much more positive view of humanity, that once faced with such a far reaching challenge we will respond accordingly. My only criticism of the book is its dreadful cover. Why anyone would want to pick the book up on the strength of its cover I don’t know, surely the publishers could have come up with something a bit more imaginative.
What is important when it comes to Peak Oil is that we begin to build up a realistic picture of the issues as they relate to us here. Mobbs does this brilliantly. He urges his readers to ask themselves “where and how do I want to be living in ten years time�. Start planning for it now. Indeed it could be that 10 years is rather on the optimistic side, time will tell. He sums his position up thus, “Western society is about to undergo a massive, collective shock, but, by applying basic principles of sustainable development we can live through this period… albeit without the ready-made meals, cheap flights to Spain, 4X4’s, Britney Spears videos, Formula One racing, plastic umbrellas…�. In this one sentence he sets out the beginning of the case that life without 60% less oil could be so much more rewarding and satisfying, but I guess that’s a subject for another book.