Comments on: Lloyds on Peak Oil, Climate Change, Resource Depletion… a historic publication…

By: BP and the peak: delusions of oil grandeur persist | OurWorld 2.0

BP and the peak: delusions of oil grandeur persist | OurWorld 2.0 — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 11:32:48 +0000

[...] Energy Security. Over at Transition Culture, Rob Hopkins states that the report’s “conclusions are striking, indeed quite extraordinary” because they recognize the need for businesses to prepare for the transition towards a low carbon [...]

By: Tony Weddle

Tony Weddle — Sun, 04 Jul 2010 21:29:39 +0000

Yes, except that a 250% increase in oil price (indeed, even a 100% increase) would devastate economies. I think it’s quite possible that we will never see sustained oil prices above what we saw in 2008 (adjusted for inflation), which is roughly twice (100% increase on) what we have now.

By: posconvex

posconvex — Sun, 04 Jul 2010 20:05:16 +0000

Any discussion about oil prices over the next decade must include an attempt to quantify emerging economy demand as an important driver at the margin. Here is a simple thought experiment using Chinese demand to give some idea of the magnitude of the supply issues we face:
- China moves from 3 bbls/person/year to the South Korean per capita consumption level of 17 bbls/person/year
- Transition takes 30 years
- No peak in global production

In next 10 years we must find 44 million BOPD. If you superimpose peak production on top of this demand profile using the following parameters oil prices would increase approximately 250% in real terms over next 10 years:
- Oil demand elasticity of -0.3
- Current production 84 million BOPD, current price US$ 80
- Peak production 100 million BOPD
- Post peak decline rate of 3-4%

If you want to try the model for yourself using your own assumptions it can be found at: http://www.petrocapita.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=128&Itemid=86

By: Hemp Lover

Hemp Lover — Tue, 15 Jun 2010 10:50:35 +0000

Mitigation takes 20-30 years and costs trillions to implement. We have the luxury of neither.

When industrial Hemp was suppressed in the 1930′s this kind of problem was always going to occur, as there isn’t a diversity of energy sources.

You can theoretically generate 600 million barrels of Hemp methanol with 1/3 of the uk land acreage. This would replace most of oil crude oil usage. Additionally, when this food is harvested, the seed can be filtered away before conversion to create a food stock, further reducing import requirements,and providing local food manufacture opportunities.

It seems like they are acknowledging the issue to avoid accusations of negligence, but the fact is, economic growth, as it is defined today, cannot continue without a cheap liquid fuel to enable sustained economic activity.

The hemp plant is too productive to ignore.

By: Transition Times » Article » Business Leaders Predict “Global Oil Supply Crunch and Price Spike”

Mon, 14 Jun 2010 20:15:26 +0000

[...] is an essential, must-read document. In the words of Rob Hopkins of Transition Culture it’s “the Hirsch Report for British business… and provides the perfect case for the work that Transition Training and Consulting are now doing [...]

By: Weekly (weekly) « Southend-on-Sea in Transition

Weekly (weekly) « Southend-on-Sea in Transition — Sun, 13 Jun 2010 00:37:04 +0000

[...] Lloyds on Peak Oil, Climate Change, Resource Depletion… a historic publication… » Transition Cu… [...]

By: Daniel Taghioff

Daniel Taghioff — Sat, 12 Jun 2010 06:37:13 +0000

What they really fail to mention is the overall impacts on the poor.

Think about all the energy market purchasing power that will seek out quick fixes to energy market problems via land use: CDM, Biofuels, REDD+ the list goes on.

This combined with rising inputs in agriculture (mentioned above) alongside increasingly unpredictable weather for marginal rain-fed farmers spells the destabilisation of the natural welfare system derived from land.

It means a revolution, at the very least in international development and aid policies, if not in the nature of governance in developing countries.

Here is my article:

http://drop.io/hjedrcn/asset/daniel-taghioff-avoiding-collapse-pdf

By: Tony Weddle

Tony Weddle — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 20:58:21 +0000

Lloyd’s may have got the message on oil depletion but they haven’t got the message on limits, per se. If businesses adopt the “appropriate mitigation strategies” it seems as though they will be just fine and continue the party for ever.

I don’t think anyone, in positions of influence, or the populace, in general, will ever learn until collapse is upon us.

By: Judaica Store

Judaica Store — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 09:41:57 +0000

I totaly agree:
It even mentions frailties in the food system, citing overdependence on fossil fuels and gives the example of the 2000 fuel blockades in the UK, where the food system was on the point of collapse in about 3 days.

A must read for those in the boardroom, and those trying to reach them. Also really good for shoving under the noses of the peak oil deniers.

By: fourcultures

fourcultures — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 04:15:49 +0000

One of the helpful things about these kinds of report is the way they re-frame the gloomy prognoses of retired (and not-so-retired) oil executives and make it upbeat. As Rabindranath Tagore wrote: 'sing our destruction, that we gain new life'. The message is thoroughly palatable to the mainstream of global capital: endless opportunities are unleashed by the disruption of business as usual. Schumpeter, the populariser of 'creative destruction', would be proud. It's not so hard to do, since the trick is in the editing: 'A rapid movement towards a highly efficient non-fossil energy future would seem to be the only way to stop our children's children from freezing to death in the dark logical investment choice.' (p.7). In terms of Gunderson and Holling's four 'myths of nature', this report is a reworking of the myth of nature benign in the shadow of the myth of nature ephemeral. As they write in Panarchy (2002:11): 'Each of these caricatures, or myths, leads to different assumptions about stability, different perceptions of the processes that affect that stability, and different policies that are deemed appropriate.' Those interested in effecting a transition need to gain competence in telling and re-telling all four myths, not just one or two.

By: Ben Brangwyn

Ben Brangwyn — Thu, 10 Jun 2010 18:37:36 +0000

It even mentions frailties in the food system, citing overdependence on fossil fuels and gives the example of the 2000 fuel blockades in the UK, where the food system was on the point of collapse in about 3 days.

A must read for those in the boardroom, and those trying to reach them. Also really good for shoving under the noses of the peak oil deniers.