Comments on: Whither Resilience and Transition? Why ‘Peak Oil’ Has Yet to Outlive its Usefulness

By: Harald Wolf

Harald Wolf — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 21:59:09 +0000

I’d like to throw a twist into this debate. “Peak Oil” was only a small attraction for me to join the Transition Movement, despite my geological training and extensive knowledge of the subject. (What attracted me was the community building and resilience.)
In my presentations on Transition, I have all but removed Peak Oil as anything more than a historical trigger in founding the Movement. The reality is that if we actually follow the curve of depleting oil down, we are done for on the climate front! We must get ahead of the curve!
More importantly yet, is the way all but the enlightened react to the Peak Oil argument: “no problem, we’ll just find a technofix in the form of Clean Coal, Carbon-Capture (CCS), and unconventional sources.”
The mentality in Canada is quite different from that in the UK, were you are dealing with clearly declining North Sea oil production. Canada’s Conservative government is a huge cheerleader for the Tar Sands, assuring us that Canada is on the cusp of becoming an “energy superpower”. All “issues” with this production are merely small technological hurdles that are on the verge of being solved.
This promise of wealth and growth completely smothers those of us pointing to the environmental destruction, poor EROEI, and ludicrousness of CCS, especially at the Tar Sands. Some are even promoting nuclear-powered Tar Sands mining!
I agree with those that expect the “peak” to be a protracted and rough rollercoaster ride. Until the decline of global production is indisputable – which may be some years off – we won’t have much luck reaching the mainstream. In the mean time, urgent action on carbon emissions gets pushed further and further back.
Thoughts?

By: Transition Times » Blog Archive » WHITHER ASPO?

Transition Times » Blog Archive » WHITHER ASPO? — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 08:44:07 +0000

[...] this thread, three days later, Rob Hopkins, founder of the Transition Movement, offered “Whither Resilience and Transition? Why ‘Peak Oil’ Has Yet to Outlive Its Usefulne… Here, Rob playfully describes the peak oil movement as a “Loch Ness Monster Society,” [...]

By: Angel Dobrow

Angel Dobrow — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:53:54 +0000

As a member of our town’s Transition Northfield initiating committee, I was invited to view the peak-oil movie “The End of Suburbia” with a college freshman writing class, and introduce transition ideas at the end of the movie. You could have heard a pin drop when the sound was turned off at the end…the class of 20 was stunned. Me too, actually, and I’ve seen the movie before. The group rallied, but I am convinced not one of those students had heard of or thought about peak oil and all it’s implications(or even any of it’s implications.) I propose the role of the ASPO be monitoring/countering oil industry lie-production-machines; and stay connected to the transition movement. People need to hear the range of forward thinking from numbers folks to social scientists, from concerned parents to food preservationists, from visionaries to worker bees.

Angel Dobrow
Northfield, MN, US

By: John Mason

John Mason — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 19:33:12 +0000

Hi Sharon,

It’s like a lot of things – they tend to need a rather non-specific yet snappy (crappy) term for the public to latch onto. Climate change is a similar example – there are obviously some parts of the world where the climate could change and thereby improve a lot for the people trying to exist there, via any cause, but nevertheless it encompasses a crisis into an everyday term of reference.

How peak oil will manifest is an interesting question because there are so many potential scenarios between the best and worst end-members: it’s probably a good stab at it to suggest that it will vary from nation to nation depending a) how governments address flow-rate depletion and b) how residents come to terms with the same, constructively or otherwise….

Cheers – John

By: Rob

Rob — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:52:40 +0000

Thanks for the clarification Sharon!
Rob

By: Sharon Astyk

Sharon Astyk — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:01:53 +0000

Rob, I appreciate the kind words in your essay, but I would observe that in fact, I didn’t say that we should stop using the term peak oil, or that it has outlived its usefulnesss. But while I quoted Hagens saying “peak oil’s day is over” I didn’t actually endorse that viewpoint. I said that peak oil was always a crappy, inspecific phrase for the larger problem of depletion. But that’s not quite the same either.

As I intended it (perhaps not as others read it), my essay *disagreed* in some measure with Hagens, and diagnosed the problem as being one of misperceiving how peak oil would manifest, and what its relationship would be to other crises. It is a minor point of disagreement, and apologies if I’m being churlish by insisting on correcting it, but I don’t think Nate and I quite said the same things.

Cheers,

Sharon

By: Kamil

Kamil — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 11:04:12 +0000

@DaveDann
‘I think that the majority of people will not change their attitudes until after they have experienced a crisis themselves’

That’s the worry isn’t it because the crisis will be overwhelming and early preparation is important.

When working with people in my community I’m informed by the addiction model from the handbook but the sad truth for many (most?) of hardcore addicts is that they only get on the change bandwagon after a crisis(es)/near death experience/loosing everything.

Translating it over to a community means that many people will change simply because TT (and other groups) have done the awareness raising and people see the benefits of change and what can be lost if they don’t. Other’s won’t change until it hurts.

I said translating but I can’t know for sure what will happen. I’m continuing to work with my community getting people (and myself) out of our lifestyle addiction – step by step, life by life working towards the tipping point of a community – oh where are you tipping point:)

By: Dave Dann

Dave Dann — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 18:05:09 +0000

I’d say awareness of Climate Change is much higher than Peak Oil but the problem with both is one of ‘credibility’. At the moment the mass of the people does not feel threatened. (I’m with Stu on his view of this). I think that the majority of people will not change their attitudes until after they have experienced a crisis themselves. In the view of most people, anyone suggesting that oil supplies could peak is automatically a doomer. By definition there can be no such thing as joyful reduction in energy use.

By: Energy Tough Love Blog » Peak Oil, Peak Food, Peak People, Peak Water Or Peak Sex - Every finite resource runs out

Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:43:14 +0000

[...] http://transitionculture.org/2009/10/09/whither-resilience-and-transition-why-peak-oil-has-yet-to-ou…/ [...]

By: joe

joe — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 22:52:01 +0000

I totally agree that peak oil is far from ready to be deleted from the agenda – for most people it isn’t even on it.

This is just the same as with the economical crisis: There have been warnings of a considerable financial instability for years – due to which I sold all my shares two years ago. But even now many aren’t aware what is at stake. In Germany, two weeks ago exactly those two parties were elected into the new government, which were most fond of the laissez-faire capitalism, which lead to the current turmoil. But obviously people didn’t care. They simply gave the power to those with the most catchy slogan: “We have the power.”

By: Wayne Thompson

Wayne Thompson — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 19:56:56 +0000

As an initial introduction I tend to talk about “the end of an economic model based on cheap energy.” I find most people can get their heads around this concept quite simple as it impacts them financially. This is the way people are used to making decisions in our culture – Can I afford it or Can i get access to credit to “afford” it. Any other criteria in the decision making process – How was this product produced, What are the long term impacts of this purchase etc. do not carry as much weight in the mind of the consumer at present. The PO discussion has to happen when your audience is ready for it and that will be different for every individual/community. Approach people where they are at and prepare to hold their hand for the long journey to enlightenment.

Just did the T4T training in Los Angeles at the weekend. Very well thought out course. Great to see so many people on the same page and fired up and ready to go back to their communities and begin or continue transitioning.

By: Jennifer Lauruol

Jennifer Lauruol — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 17:49:56 +0000

It’s a moment of sanity every evening reading Rob’s blog and all your comments guys n gals. It keeps me from giving up entirely when surrounded by willful ‘don’t give a damn’ attitudes, even amongst local politicos who know about Peak Oil, and might be able to do something about some of the issues if they only had the courage to show some leadership. I know, we’re all leaders, have a role to play; but sometimes I just lose heart when those who actually have some political power refuse to care.

By: Greenpa

Greenpa — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 16:21:12 +0000

There is another problem here, which I think is almost never dealt with; the learning process is long, and stretches from 0 to 1000 (let’s say.)

Sharon Astyk is working up around 900. Joe Pub is around 5.

When a 5 manages to become a 400 (over several years) – they tend to forget what it’s like to be a 5, and they forget that there are still a zillion 0-10 folks out there- oblivious. You can even have Negative numbers- we have some Congressmen in the US who would be -8s, or so (actually know very little, and all wrong).

The concept of Peak Oil is still desperately important new information for anyone in the 10-400 range. They need it.

Sharon does an extraordinarily good job of making her blog accessible to anyone from 10- 1000; but, like any human, she can, rarely, get impatient with the need to feed the entire spectrum. “Can’t we just quit talking about X!! We’ve talked it to death already! Time to move on.”

I think everyone along the spectrum feels this way from time to time.

Maybe we need a certifyer for information. “This blog is rated 100-300.”

There would be a little less crankiness and miscomprehension in the audience.

I know, I know. Who is going to bell the cat?

By: Jason

Jason — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 10:24:06 +0000

Great post, one I’d like to send to a few people who would be interested. (It needs a proofreading though.)

As for me, I see peak oil not as a slogan but as a way of explaining information, and still a good one, since it’s still communicable and still relevant.

By: Gil Sanford

Gil Sanford — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 03:33:04 +0000

Yes, I think peakers who are wondering what their role should be now that, in their estimation, peak oil is in the present tense, should look beyond the niche of their echo chambers and try dropping a red pill on someone else. The NYT article from Michael Lynch (seem my dramatization) has successfully reset peak oil awareness to zero after the Fatih Birol 2020 bombshell was about to maybe make some waves for a change. European awareness of resource depletion is way above and beyond what it is in the US. The best english language media coverage of PO is in places like The Independent or BBC News. The gulf between UK news and US news is wider than the Atlantic Ocean.