My sense is that Rob has an all-or-nothing attitude towards mitigating collapse. Either transition saves the day, or we capitulate to dystopia.

My feeling is that setting the bar so high for Transition is unrealistic. What that means is at the first hint of violence, the whole transition model breaks down.

What I see in this debate is a growing realiziation that as we face the real probability of Argeninian-style hyperinflation and the chaos that is likely to cause, that Transition will indeed be rendered irrelevant by its avoidance of anything that could be construed as “survivalism”.

Likewise, if Rob’s calculations on carrying capacity are wrong, or Transition is only adopted in pockets here and there, once the music stops on the game of musical chairs with respect to energy descent and ecological collapse, you will have this patchwork quilt of towns that are more or less resilient. Lifeboats must be defended otherwise they are useless.

In Rob’s world, the second conflict of this sort rears its head, Transition’s mission is to be deemed a failure. Just curl up in a ball and die.

Considering that the end goal of anyone who takes the red pill is survival, how is that defeatist attitude attractive?

Survivalists have to adopt more community responsibility and drop some of the misanthropy, and TT needs to stop alienating them as well, since they are already the most advanced at doing at the individual level what the rest of the town should be doing as far as the homesteading piece is concerned. Those skills should be leveraged.

Thank you all for a very interesting discussion with much food for thought.

I have been pondering these questions, as you know Rob, for a considerable length of time. Any culture that destroys its life support system in the name of progress is insane and has not got a great deal of time to live. In such a culture, what we see as “normality” is only contributing to the insanity, and “sustainability” in such a culture is extremely abnormal. It is only a matter of time.

As regards emergency planning, the issues of top down versus bottom up I feel are irrelevant, we need to do both, just as we do with the EDAP process. I am reminded of the fact that a number of years ago, the Cyclone that flattened Exmouth in Western Australia was twice as big as Katrina, and yet there was zero loss of life and the town was rebuilt relatively painlessly. The reason why was that the town created an excellent Emergency plan, and rehearsed it 6 weeks before the cyclone struck. As a result, in the emergency, everyone knew what to do and various glitches had been identified and dealt with.

Physical emergency planning of this kind can be fun and productive. It also increases the feeling of security in an emergency.

Some time ago, when looking at the closure of major local employers, in the Western Australian Department of Local Government and Regional Development we looked at the issue of “Economic shockproofing for local communities”. For example, in such a scenario, what should be done immediately and who should do it, what could be done in the medium term and what long term actions need to start immediately. It was a very productive exercise, and with role playing scenario planning could help enormously.

But I don’t think we should fool ourselves into thinking that we are going to be all beer and skittles. Various people have suggested 4 scenarios are possible.

1. The market solution of Business as Usual
2. The Militaristic solution of seize the resources you need, devil take the hindermost
3. The Failed State neo-Feudal solution (Look at Somalia)
4. The clean Green, Transition type solution.

Various options and alternatives to these have been repeatedly put out.

But I don’t think these *are* alternatives. In fact I feel we will see all four solutions being tried at different times and different places, as things slowly get tighter and tighter as we proceed towards the overshoot collapse.

In such circumstances, I have been conducting a comparative study of Dark Ages to see what lessons we can learn from these.

In order to minimise the Darkness of a Dark Age, and to shorten its tength, there are, I feel, 6 courses of action which we should start looking at now, when there is still time. Much of these relate to the Tranition movement, which I think (Semi fortuitously, semi by design) has hit upon some of these things spontaneously.

If you want to limit and enlighten a Dark Age here is what you do.

1. Build community as if your life depended upon it. It does. Those people who live in a supportive and caring community will sirvive better than those who try to do it alone, or maintain their home as their castle, on the belief that good fences make good neighbours.

2. Simplify your life. Prior to the peak, increases in complexity, increase the standards of life. After the threshold, increased complexity reduces standards. So in such circumstances reduced complexity increases resilience, especially by preventing people from being time poor.

3. Maximise creativity. Technological creativity is linked to social, political, economic, environmental, cultural and artistic and spiritual creativity. The creative individuals and communities are those that find the way through first.

4. Cultivate nonviolent resolution of all conflicts. In a Dark Age, inter and intra community violence increases, and in such circumstances one cannot “fight violence with violence” it just escalates the downward spiral. Nonviolence at every level is urgently needed.

5. Preserve knowledge. In a Dark Age people not only forget what they once knew in a great deskilling to reverse Rob’s terminology, they also forget that they have forgotten very quickly. We currently lose a language every two weeks and are becoming ecologically ignorant as a result at an alarming rate. Wisdom is degraded to knowledge, which is degraded to understanding, which is degraded to data, which disappears in a sea of noise, as new superstitions arise to fill the vacuum. Preserve knowledge.

6. Cultivate ecologically based interfaith dialogues. In a Dark Age we see the rise of militant fundamentalisms, and it would be hard to find a better definition of “evil” than that. Interfaith Earthbased spiritualities are urgently needed.

If we can do these six things, then the coming Dark Age will possibly be short and not too Dark. But fail and we are in for a rough ride to the bottom.

As Joanna Macy says, Apathy is another word for no feeling. When we learn to engage with and acknowledge our despair we can come through to the other side into “the Great Turning”. Then action can follow.

Hope this helps

Regards

John

The first is the “Beyond Resilience” concept, which basically says that using resilience to simply keep going through crises often isn’t enough – you need to adapt to the new conditions. I think Transition Towns has this part down cold.

http://files.howtolivewiki.com/Visionary%20Adaptation%20v1.pdf

http://vinay.howtolivewiki.com/blog/global/beyond-resilience-visionary-adaptation-1374

The second tool I’d like to add to the mix is SCIM mapping – http://bit.ly/scim2 – which provides a common framework for discussing both long term systemic risks like Peak Everything, and short term acute risks caused by disasters, violence, sudden unfolding scenarios.

I think it’s important to be clear that a substantial subset of the actions required to handle systemic risks are also very useful in dealing with acute ones.

Vinay

Unfortunately the arrogance is also on the survivalist side. US survivalist websites poo-poo any community approaches, favoring use of firearms [murder] to protect personal stashes from those who did not plan ahead. Frankly they underestimate the futility of that approach. Their shoot-out scenario would become a war of attrition that they and their families ultimately lose to the looted armory -equipped local warlords.

I tend to agree with Richard Heinberg. [How refreshing to sidestep the false choice between the lone gun-toting survivalist and the naive hemp-toting hippy stereotypes.] We do need a synthesis of both TI community-based skilling up and of survivalist emergency preparedness in light of the accelerating arrival of the three storms of macro-economic collapse, natural resource depletion, and climate change – in that order.

Living in America may make it easier to see this. Our families and communities having been more fractured by job mobility and by the rugged individualism paradigm and resulting lack of a social safety net; our climate already being more life threatening in our summer and winter extremes: literal survival is definitely the immediate issue here especially on the US east coast than in more moderate climates such as on the US west coast and in more cohesive communities in the UK.

The government is hopelessly corrupted and bankrupting itself before our very eyes. As we saw in Katrina, it cannot be relied upon in an emergency – just as it could not be relied upon to mitigate the worldwide environmental damage, the peak oil damage and the capitalist greed damage that its federalist deregulation policies helped wrought.

If TI is going to thrive beyond California in the US, it must factor in the emergency planning as a grassroots skilling up function. TI could start by outreaching to existing grassroots networks such as the ‘neighborhood watch’ movement. Since towns and cities will soon no longer be able to sell municipal bonds [or tax the increasingly unemployed] to fund basic services, I think that the local neighborhood associations will become the defacto local governments of the future. Think smaller scale, less funding. You won’t even be able to drive across [or as is more likely in the US out of town] to your TI meetings, you’ll have to skill up with your immediate neighborhood. Are they prepared for a lengthy power outage, sudden grocery store empty shelves, or a water main break? Start there first… and then later you can teach them all knitting.
:^)

In one of Richard H’s many interviews, he talks about preparation for energy descent as equivalent to a spiritual crisis: we need to rise above dispair and work faithfully for a better future, even while it appears futile.
http://www.sustainablelifestyles.ca

Dear Ms. Butler,

Hello! My name is Emerlyn Tseng and I am a student at Arcadia high school. We have a project in our environmental science class where we will be preparing a disaster plan for the city of Arcadia. I was wondering if I might be able to ask you some questions about this project. Of course, I do not know your specialty, but our teacher Ms. Stevens has recommended you as an interviewee, so whichever questions you may be able to answer would be greatly appreciated.

Here are some of the questions we are interested in, they do not require intense research or anything like that- to be honest, we just want a point of view from a professional adult.

Thank you in advance for your time.

Interview questions:
-Title of job:
-responsibilities:
Our project requires that we prepare enough food for up to 10,000 people, for a minimum of 3 days. How would you try to accomplish this?
-For a long-term plan, would you recommend planting certain edible plants in the city, to be used in emergencies?
-if so, which types of food would grow in abundant supply and be filling?
-Or, what types of plants require low maintenance but high yield?
-Do you think these plants might be suitable to be used as a fuel source?
-What kinds of food do you think might be suitable for longterm storage, without spoiling?
-What kind of long-term plan would you recommend? Something we can begin NOW to prepare for future disaster?
-Do you have any advice regarding our disaster plan?

Thank you very much,

Emerlyn Tseng

How to prepare food for 10,000 people for three days?

There are different kinds and severity of disasters, with different scenarios afterwards, so I will discuss different levels of response, depending on how much existing infrastructure remains intact. An earthquake could cause either local or statewide disruption, either mild or severe. A fire is usually a regional problem. A sudden fuel shortage could cause the grocery stores run out of food (within 3 days) before people realize what is happening. I am assuming that many peoples’ homes will no longer be functional, either from earthquake damage, fire, or lack of fuel for heat, refrigeration, and cooking.

Resources needed:
1. COOKING FACILITIES: It would be best to have as many feeding centers as possible, spread around the downtown area, and near other densely populated areas, such as neighborhoods or suburbs. Assume transportation might be difficult, so it’s best if people can walk to the centers. 50 – 100 cooking centers would be more feasible than one or two big ones. It’s hard to seat 10,000 people for a meal; but 100 or 200 would be quite doable.
a.) Outdoor facilities could be quickly set up, similar to large outdoor barbecues, using 55 gallon drums, or large culverts (those pipes that direct water under roadways) cut in half, or just any metal scraps that can be formed into a 20′ long cooking grill, perhaps several for each center. In winter, roofs for outdoor kitchens could be quickly erected using scraps from ruined buildings, or tarps. If you have parks, these would be good locations for this, especially if they have bathrooms. Otherwise parking lots are everywhere.
For fuel, what first comes to mind is wood –scraps from ruined buildings, cut firewood, or charcoal –if caches of that can be found in your city in stores or homes. I don’t know your area well enough to know if the houses are made of wood, or if there are many trees there. If normal sources of fuel for cooking are available in this disaster, such as propane or natural gas, that should be used wherever available. With proper expertise, intact existing gas lines might be tapped into. Failing other sources for cooking fuel, trash and tires are everywhere and can be burned, but the smoke is toxic. Erecting very high smokestacks on the barbecues would help, as would constructing the fire-containers with battery-powered blowers and dampers to control a very hot flame, which pollutes less. For longer-term preparations, small gasification units are available which make clean natural gas out of anything –-tires (cut up) plastic trash, scraps of wood, pine cones –without pollution. See http://www.gekgasifier.com.
The hard part in a crisis would be organization to get these centers set up quickly, so planning in advance is essential so as to have people skilled in construction, welding, cooking and fire safety on call.
b.) Take over institutional facilities such as those found at churches, schools, grange halls, fire stations, jails, clinics, day care centers, restaurants and the like. Planning in advance for permission for this would be a good idea. Some of these resources would probably still be at least partially intact. Also consider using the parking lots of large retailers, which often have good bathroom facilities, some of which may still be partially functional. If not, more on sanitation later.
c.) Private homes, parks, museums, golf courses, sports stadiums, etc. might also be assigned as feeding centers. Outdoor facilities could be set up in these places, or any intact homes, or other buildings could be utilized. Again, best to get permission in advance for this.

2. COOKING & EATING TOOLS
a.) Grilling can be done on makeshift barbecues without pots or pans. Otherwise, these cooking tools would have to be scrounged from restaurants, institutional facilities or private homes. It might be good to arrange to have commercial cooking equipment on call for emergencies from the places that normally use it.
b.) Most people have knives, forks and plates they could bring with them to a facility. (more on communication later.) Or, there might be paper plates, etc, still available in ruined stores; or these things could be stockpiled in advance. Worst case, shingles, large leaves, and fingers would have to do. The same applies for tables and chairs for feeding. These might be available in parks or institutional settings. Otherwise, sitting on the ground, or on tarps would do.

3. FOOD SUPPLIES
a.) EMERGENCY STOCKPILES: This depends on the particular disaster scenario. Are there public stockpiles of flour, beans, canned goods, dried food? If not, a plan for this getting this in place should be made and carried out. Is the government going to drop-ship emergency supplies? I wouldn’t count on this unless the disaster is limited to only your local area.
b.) FOOD ON HAND: If no stockpiles are available, then scrounging is in order. To avoid looting, and other forms of social disorder, a plan is a wonderful thing. Even in fire or earthquake, there will be some food still available in the less hard-hit areas –in stores, in institutions, in peoples’ homes, on privately owned fruit and nut trees, if in season; and in community gardens, if you have them. Plans should be in place for permission to take these supplies to feeding centers in emergency.
There may already be laws in place to cover “eminent domain” in emergencies, that is, the authorities’ right to commandeer supplies, facilities, and land. This legal aspect would be an important research topic for you. (more on emergency-authorities later) There are about three days worth of groceries available in stores at any one time. That’s all. If stores, schools, restaurants, etc. have not burnt down or collapsed, there should be enough in place to supply feeding centers for three days. Look to assemble a total number of meals available from in-stock grocery store shelves, and other sources, at any one time in your city. We are talking about 60,000 meals, at two meals per day, for 10,000 people, for three days.
d.) FORAGING: This is another good research topic: What wild foods are plentiful in your area, and at what times of year? I’m no expert on this, but what comes to mind are fruits and nuts from wild trees or local orchards, if in season; reed beds, acorns, bay tree nuts, edible wild roots and greens. Some able-bodied people will have time on their hands, so this area of supply could be well researched and planned for in advance.
e.) SECURITY: We must assume that police will be overwhelmed, as they were in Katrina. Security is a great job towards which to divert the energies of those in your area who may be naturally aggressive and are often well equipped with firearms. A plan should be in place for using such people as security forces for keeping order. Planned protocols should be in place with specific job descriptions to be assigned in a hierarchical structure. Safe gun practices, and strict rules of engagement should be a part of your plan. This part of the plan should be well publicized in advance, so that otherwise unmanageable armed persons know there is a place for them to be useful. The plan should include treating these folks with special priority in feeding lines, sleeping facilities and the like, so they feel valued and respected. This is an important part of a plan to prevent disorder.

COMMUNICATION
a.) Once your class gets your plan done, it should be well-publicized. Articles should be placed in local papers, perhaps your high school drama department could stage a play, local authorities could be sought out to coordinate with their plans. Practice run-throughs could then be organized, involving as many people as possible, twice a year to cover summer and winter conditions. This will make sure that everyone knows that a plan is in place, and that they will be taken care of. Panic will not set in, and people will know where to go and what to do.
b.) Phone and internet may not be available, so a tree or web of foot-carried messages should be planned for, using neighborhood ‘hubs’ -–usual gathering points where people can go to get information. A low-tech, solar-and-battery-powered radio capability could be planned for. Hand-cranked radios are available to receive such communications. Perhaps each designated neighborhood ‘hub’ could have a person assigned to keep such a receiver on hand.

EMERGENCY AUTHORITIES
a.) Every community has local government officials, first responders (police and firemen), and emergency teams such as EMT (emergency medical technicians), Red Cross chapters, and the like. You should know who these people are, where they work, and what their plans and capabilities are. Depending on the suddenness, severity, and duration of a disaster, these human resources and organizational structures may or may not remain intact. So an emergency plan should be in place both to work with them, and to replace them, if necessary. Volunteer leaders with skills and expertise should be sought to be on call, just in case. The important thing is that authorized, capable and respected leaders remain in place at all times. Disasters are no times for anarchy, experimentation, or strong-arm tactics. It’s well-known that competent leaders often emerge from unlikely sources in a crisis, so flexible accommodation for this phenomena should be planned for. One idea is to plan to pass out colored arm bands for people responsible for different tasks, as is done at big demonstrations and other large outdoor events, for example, blue for authorities, red for security forces, orange for foragers, yellow for medical, and the like.

TRANSPORTATION
a.) Transporting people and supplies is a critical issue. Are there secure (earthquake and fireproof) stockpiles of liquid fuel for emergency vehicles in your area? If not, that should be planned for. Even just enough fuel for a few trucks and buses, for a few days, would be critical. Arcadia is a small city, so in-town transport is possible on foot. However, people tend to be very widely spread out in Southern California, so a means for getting people and supplies to feeding centers is important. For longer-term planning, a small-scale program to make alcohol fuel from normal urban waste streams of spoiled foods, or from reed beds in constructed wetlands (which are also good for flood control and “green” wastewater treatment) could be put in place to secure ongoing, independent, and local liquid fuel sources for emergency vehicles.

SANITATION & WATER
a.) What goes in must come out, so emergency sanitation is a critical part of any feeding scheme, where large numbers of people will gather. If normal facilities are intact, those should be utilized wherever found, whether normally public or private, such as at schools, stadiums, restaurants, retail stores, or gas stations. Otherwise, the quickest and lowest-tech solution would be to dig privies. Calculate, as part of your planning, how many privies of how much capacity each, would be needed for each feeding station. A longer-term solution to this aspect of things would be to construct public composting toilets in every park, and beside every frequently utilized area, such as shopping centers and the like. These facilities are common in our state and national parks, and can be designed to be simple, private, clean and odorless.
b.) Facilities for washing up after meals, and just as importantly, hand-washing facilities for everyone must be provided, to forestall disease. Another important item to stockpile: chlorine bleach for sterilization. This is adequate for cooking and eating ware. Plain soap is important for hands.
This brings up the issue of water. Does your community have emergency stockpiles of water, or the capability for obtaining it, such as pumps, pipes, filters, and storage tanks? This equipment should be planned for. Otherwise, find out where water is normally stored –tanks, trucks, water mains, hot water heaters, reservoirs, ponds, year round streams, and the like. Clean water is even more important than food. Every planned feeding station must have a planned water source. Normal water supplies would be disrupted by earthquake or fuel shortages. Longer term planning should emphasize a program of rainwater harvesting off buildings with water storage tanks becoming a commonplace feature of your urban landscape.

MEDICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL
a.) We have to assume that conventional medical resources will be overwhelmed in a disaster, if intact at all. Anyone with first aide skills should be identified in advance and sought as volunteers on call. Tents and basic equipment for makeshift hospitals would be wise to have stockpiled.
b.) Therapists are plentiful in California. On call volunteers for trauma counseling, for group therapy sessions, and for conflict resolution duties should be planned for and recruited as an essential resource.

LONG TERM PREPARATIONS

URBAN LANDSCAPING:
There are edible urban tree-planting schemes being developed in some areas. This involves not just planting the right kind of trees, but having an ongoing program in place for harvesting and storing the resulting produce. This part is critical. The reason cities have normally avoided planting food-bearing trees is because they leave a mess on the sidewalks, and attract rodents. Oaks for acorns, coconut palms, date palms, almond trees, olives, walnuts, all kinds of fruit trees, kiwi vines, blueberry and current shrubs, prickly pear cactus, are only a few of the many types of edible trees, vines and shrubs that can feed an urban population. Most of this produce can be dried, or made into preserves or oils, and be stockpiled safely for long periods. Vacant lots with irrigation capability (former parks or golf courses come to mind) can be planted with edible meadows. In California’s year-round growing season, it is quite possible to sow broccoli, kale, mustard greens, etc. and let them naturalize in a meadow area which has been sheet-mulched first with cardboard, then 4-5″ of manure and compost applied before planting the edible meadow. With little or no competition from weeds, after they are planted and get started, many of these non-perennial food plants will self-sow each year, providing winter and summer vegetable matter full of lifesaving nutrition. Other meadow-type edible things should be mixed in for maximum variety –wild onion, oxalis, artichoke, and many other plants could be researched as to what does best in your chosen site’s microclimate. This is just for urban landscaping. Community gardens, with plots allotted to individual gardeners should be a strong feature in places interested in local food security and resilience.
In semi-arid conditions such as in Southern California, mesquite trees, long considered weeds, could become a great resource. They require no irrigation. The wood makes excellent fuel, and the pods are starchy enough to make alcohol fuel. There is a species of desert gourd which can be planted under mesquite trees which also requires no irrigation. Prickly pear cactus is attractive and edible and will also grow, once established, without care or water.
Certain trees are good for coppicing, which is the best way to grow wood fuel sustainably. To coppice, one cuts the tree down but leaves the root system. Then certain species of trees will throw up many new shoots to replace the single stem that was cut. One root system thus can produce useful wood for many decades. This is another good research topic: find out which trees in your area would grow well and work for this purpose. They could be planted in parks and along streets.

CONCLUSION:
Individual stockpiling of water and food, such as MREs (military meals-ready-to-eat) or canned goods and other non-perishables at home is becoming popular. In my opinion, publicly organized stockpiling, along with a well-thought-out and well-understood plan, such as the one you are working on, is a much better arrangement. Otherwise individuals have the worry of how to protect their stockpile from people who don’t have anything. This is a recipe for problems. We are all far better off working together. That’s why your plan is so important. And your wish to start now and put in place the things that will make your city more self-sufficient long-term, is a really great idea.

Please feel free to send me further questions and comments. Also please keep me informed about how your plan progresses. I would love to see your final result.

–Susan Butler

A few quick thoughts/ comments
* I like the idea of the trainings in appropriate tech etc.
* Mapping the community (in terms of skills, resources, land, etc.) is key to both short and long term plans so should defo be done as an early step in transition
* Official UK Resilience plans (see http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/ukresilience.aspx ) assume that no crisis will last more than 3 days. Personally I find that a bit worrying.
* There is also the Real Help Now site that has been set-up http://www.realhelpnow.gov.uk/
* It is obvious that in any serious crisis those that are “supposed” to be doing the work will be overwhelmed.
* Yes, you can’t grow food in an emergency, especially out of season. The key to food resilience is FOOD STORAGE (and seed storage too so that you CAN plant stuff straight away too)
* Demos had an interesting conference on this stuff recently to launch their book Resilient Nation http://www.demos.co.uk/projects/resilientnation
* In Camden in London they put adds on bus stops with this link http://www.camden.gov.uk/recession/
* The Red Cross has a lot to teach us with the ERU – Emergency Response Unit. These are teams of people (a bit like the Transition Team Rob outlined) who have both expertise in a particular field AND experience of working together. The Red Cross gets one of these teams out to disasters within 48 hours which is pretty impressive. Details of UK stuff are here http://www.redcross.org.uk/standard.asp?id=53033 (BTW, it include “Psychosocial” support too)
* Searching for Red Cross ERU stuff I note there are online games related to it http://www.games.co.uk/game/Red-Cross-Emergency-Response-Unit.html not checked them out yet though.
* Check out http://collapsonomics.org/
* Vinay Gupta, one of the Collapsonmics team, has a useful “Six ways to die” model: Hunger, Thirst, Hot, Cold, Injury, Ill. We need to think about local versions of the infrastructure that stops us from dies from these things.

Its now raining and I’m outside a (currently) bar in a small village in Spain using free wireless so I’m off to find shelter…

Josef.

Rob if you’re looking for answers within this discussion, i’d say the answer is “yes plan” as most respondents have moved on from this question and have focused on “how to plan?”

Dean, I’ve read your early comments and i think people have ignored them becuase they demonstrate firstly a total lack of knowledge of what the transition network is doing, i.e. you said;

“I ( could ) explain the details of what Communities must become, that will allow them to be here 1000 ( or more ) years into the future…… If you really care about Humanity, and the Earth, and the millions of other Species, … there is the necessity of a well thought out SERIOUS PLAN, that works everywhere.”

Do your research. Through Energy Descent Planning in possibly hundreds of transition groups throughout the world, there is the single larges “SERIOUS PLAN, that works everywhere” forming. This is more than just planning too. Transition groups are the first time i’ve seen environmentalists having any real penetration in terms of action in our communities.

Secondly your comments have demonstrated an arrogance. i.e.
“I ( could ) explain the details of what Communities must become…”

any one person who thinks they can can explain what 6 billion people need to do, needs to rethink. You may have something to offer the debate but kicking off with ignorance and arrogance together is a pretty poor start.
Shane

First, it seems to me that there are two educational processes which need to be carefully balanced:

1) arriving at a full appreciation of the difficulty of our current circumstances
2) arriving at the belief that a positive outcome is possible

Here are two ways of looking at the above processes:

1) Arriving at a full appreciation of the difficulty of our current circumstances is both difficult and risky, as arriving at such a point without also having sufficient faith and wisdom—and access to appropriate resources—could be overwhelming, and could lead to many people losing hope and becoming desperate.

2) Arriving at the belief that a positive outcome is possible is an important step towards actually achieving a positive outcome, and a step which needs to be attended to with much care, to encourage practical and constructive public discourse. One way of attending to this step is to increase our collective awareness of the significant numbers of people who are currently accumulating valuable experience and establishing constructive understandings relevant to overcoming the challenges of our times.

My commentary on the above balancing process can be expressed with a statement and a question. The statement: I an inclined to believe that the more solid the foundation is regarding the second educational process— arriving at the belief that a positive outcome is possible—the more likely it will be constructive to arrive at a full appreciation of the difficulties. And yet how can communities of people arrive at the belief that a positive outcome is possible, unless they have sufficient understanding about the challenges ahead?

Understanding that the balancing process associated with the above educational processes is as delicate as that is helpful. There can be no doubt that activity along the lines of community resilience, relocalization, permaculture, energy descent, local currencies, etc. – along the lines of practical adjustments to how we live our personal lives… and along the lines of living more in accordance with solution-oriented approaches—is critical… . And yet… there are larger questions about the implications of all this; for example, how such changes will affect people in already marginal circumstances, in communities around the world. The unwinding of the complex entities associated with global interdependencies cannot be left out of our considerations. And yet the complexity of such an unwinding is such that I think I may speak for many when I say it seems like diminishing returns are setting in on trying to assimilate and synthesize the many complex analyses necessary to say anything coherent about such considerations. (Do you know what I mean?)

Which is why I have been arriving at a greater and greater appreciation of the value of Community Visioning Initiatives.

Here, again, consider—there are many serious challenges ahead, which include, but are not limited to, the following:

a) global warming and reducing carbon emissions
b) peak oil and reducing dependence on petroleum based products
c) global inequities and the tragic cycles of malnutrition, disease, and death
d) an increasing world population requiring more resources when many resources are becoming more scarce (with a special emphasis on the increasing number of people who are consuming resources and ecological services indiscriminately)
e) cultures of greed, corruption, and overindulgence have caused a crises of confidence in financial markets, and are in many ways slowing the restructuring of investment priorities needed to respond to the challenges listed here (and other challenges)
f) there still seems to be a majority of people on the planet who do not have a clear understanding, well-grounded in personal experience, of which basic elements of community life and cultural traditions lead to mutually beneficial understandings, which lead to cycles of violence—and why it is so important for people to achieve clarity on this subject.

Now, consider this: As a result of the unprecedented opportunities created by the expansion of the Internet, we have now arrived at a very auspicious moment in time… for at no other time in the course of history has so many people had access to so much in the way of time-tested guidelines, inspiring role models, and service-oriented initiatives relevant to overcoming the challenges of our times.

We have the resources necessary to overcome the challenges of our times.

Since I believe this, the question which is foremost in my mind (as someone most interested in peacebuilding and community revitalization) is:

What can we do—at this particular point in time—in the everyday circumstances of our lives—to bring the best ideas from the storehouses of accumulated wisdom now accessible to us and “through the mist”, so that our community building processes will be most effective in helping us overcome the challenges of our times?

The answer I have arrived at is Community Visioning Initiatives. One outcome which has followed from continuing to arrive at an appreciation of Community Visioning Initiatives is that I created a 161 page proposal describing in detail a form of Community Visioning Initiatives which I thought would be equal to the challenges ahead (see http://ipcri.net/images/1000Communities2.pdf )—and which (thus) provides evidence encouraging a full appreciation of the difficulties of our times. Though my own rendering of the potential of Community Visioning Initiatives may not be very convincing for many readers, it is sufficiently convincing for me; and this is why I continue my efforts to describe this potential, even though my skills are not near being equal to the magnitude of the task. I simply feel it is part of my work to help other people arrive at a greater appreciation of this potential.

And so, here is another try.

The kind of Community Visioning Initiatives described in the “1000Communities2” proposal mentioned above are structured brainstorming and prioritizing meetings which are carried out in a number of central locations in a particular community. There would be a series of meetings which focus on five particular areas: challenges, prioritizing challenges, solutions, prioritizing solutions, and creating action plans. Combined with ongoing workshops and much formal and informal educational activity, these meetings, though only a part of the visioning initiative, may last more 4-6 months.

One of the main goals of these kind of Community Visioning Initiatives is to maximize citizen participation in identifying challenges, and in solution-oriented activity.

Many cities and towns in the United States have carried out visioning initiatives or strategic planning exercises, but I do not know of any particular examples which are meant to be responses to most of the multiple challenges mentioned above. I also believe that for community visioning initiatives to be most effective, much more attention needs to be given to preliminary surveys (see Section 9 in the above mentioned proposal for my contributions on that subject).

The “1000Communities2” proposal advocates organizing and implementing Community Visioning Initiatives which are time-intensive, lasting even as much as 1½ years (18 months), so as to give as much importance to developing a close-knit community as it does to

a) accumulating and integrating the knowledge and skill sets necessary for the highest percentage of people to act wisely in response to challenges identified as priority challenges
b) helping people to deliberately channel their time, energy, and money into the creation of “ways of earning a living” which are directly related to resolving high priority challenges
c) assisting with outreach, partnership formation, and development of service capacity for a significant number of already existing (or forming) organizations, businesses, institutions, and government agencies
d) helping to build a high level of consensus for specific action plans, which will help inspire additional support from people, businesses, organizations, institutions, and government agencies with significant resources

Another element of the “1000Communities2” proposal is the concept of “Community Teaching and Learning Centers” (a concept created by “Teachers Without Borders”). In the “1000Communities2” proposal, this concept is expanded so that such local community points of entry function as

1) information centers, resource centers, and clearinghouses (on how residents can deliberately channel
their time, energy, and money into the creation of “ways of earning a living” which are directly related
to resolving high priority challenges)
2) locations for workshops on topics suggested by the “Preliminary Survey” [see Step 3 of the 15 Step
Outline (Section 6)], and as determined by the CTLC Coordinator
3) practice sites for the development of “teacher-leaders”
4) community centers for meetings, both planned and informal
5) locations for “Community Journals” (which are collections of formal and informal input which may be
contributed to or accessed at all times)
6) central locations for listings of employment opportunities
7) as a special form of community education, which can respond quickly (by changing the emphasis of workshop content) to new urgencies as they arise

The “1000Communities2” proposal also suggests—as a way of emphasizing the need for an exponential increase in compassion for our fellow human beings—that communities (with the resources to do so) enter into “sister community” relationships with communities in other countries where there has been well documented calls for assistance with basic human needs.

These kind of Community Initiatives recognize the complexity of the transition ahead, and could provide enough of both kinds of the above mentioned educational processes (appreciation of the difficulties ahead, and evidence in support of a positive outcome) to be equal to assisting with the challenges of unwinding the above mentioned complex global interdependencies. These kind of Community Visioning Initiatives also provide an educational process which can be used again and again to increase and accumulate the communities capacity to integrate knowledge, resources, and compassion into the everyday circumstances of community life.

The Transition Movement recognizes the value of visioning as a way of building consensus, and as a way of increasing citizen participation in creating practical action plans and implementing doable steps. What I am suggesting is a greater appreciation for the kind of Community Visioning Initiatives which might require a years time (or more) to carry out. I do recommend the “1000Communities2” proposal I have written; but I only understand that proposal as a starting point, which I hope can be helpful to those people who have the skills and experience necessary to really bring the concept alive. And as to the way all this relates to emergency planning: I believe that any community visioning initiatives which can be carried out with a full measure of both the educational processes mentioned above (both a high degree of belief that a positive outcome is possible, and a full appreciation of the difficulties ahead) will be an exercise in emergency planning, no matter what name is given to it.

Here are my concluding comments: even if there is a longer “grace” period for the transition “from where we are to the other side of our current challenges”, community visioning initiatives represent a very comprehensive and practical form of peacebuilding and community revitalization, which can help provide a sure foundation for responding to any variety of difficult challenges, whether they be challenges we have already anticipated or others we have not even begun to understand. In the best of times, even the most profound challenges can be overcome; for in the best of times, ____________________ is/are nurtured, supported, and sustained by family, friends, teachers, mentors, elders, and the everyday influences of community life and cultural traditions. We can discover how we would fill in the blank in the above statement. If the concept of Community Visioning Initiatives can be sufficiently refined, it can provide a systematic, practical, and doable process by which the people which make up the everyday influences of community life and cultural traditions can realize the wisdom of deliberately focusing the way they spend their time, energy, and money.

There is much which leaders could be asking from the people who respect their leadership, both as a matter of civic duty, and as a matter of necessity; and there are many people who will be very appreciative when they find that they have an important role to play in the work ahead. Leaders should guide citizens so that they can discover how they can do their part to contribute to the greater good of the whole.

With Kind Regards,

Stefan Pasti, Founder and Outreach Coordinator
The Interfaith Peacebuilding and Community Revitalization (IPCR) Initiative

Your urgency is understandable, indeed reasonable.

What you have not yet grasped is- you/we must all work in the realm of “the possible”.

That is something Rob excels at- he’s quite extraordinary.

Nothing is more painful- and more a waste of energy- than blindly attacking an immovable mountain. You’ll burn out, I guarantee.

Take a look here, at my approach, if you like. I’m 60. And still working on it all as hard as I can.

http://littlebloginthebigwoods.blogspot.com/2007/06/pushing-on-icebergs.html