Comments on: Peak Oil and the Snake in the Loft http://transitionculture.org/2008/10/23/peak-oil-the-snake-in-the-loft/ An Evolving Exploration into the Head, Heart and Hands of Energy Descent Fri, 19 Mar 2010 23:18:13 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Jason Cole http://transitionculture.org/2008/10/23/peak-oil-the-snake-in-the-loft/comment-page-1/#comment-59985 Jason Cole Wed, 29 Oct 2008 01:19:22 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1949#comment-59985 <p><i>"I had the other day with someone who argued that the current precipitous fall in oil prices meant that peak oil was now a ‘non-issue’. This led to a very interesting conversation. My take is that peak oil, and the gap that began to open between supply and demand was one of the key factors triggering the recession in which we find ourselves."</i></p> <p>30 minutes into this film...</p> <p>http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-596805984521272213</p> <p>...Colin Campbell predicts sharp rises and falls, as the loss of spare capacity causes the supply and demand to become unbalanced, leading to the price shocks both up and down.</p> <p>And where has the "Fuelling the Future" website gone now?</p> “I had the other day with someone who argued that the current precipitous fall in oil prices meant that peak oil was now a ‘non-issue’. This led to a very interesting conversation. My take is that peak oil, and the gap that began to open between supply and demand was one of the key factors triggering the recession in which we find ourselves.”

30 minutes into this film…

http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-596805984521272213

…Colin Campbell predicts sharp rises and falls, as the loss of spare capacity causes the supply and demand to become unbalanced, leading to the price shocks both up and down.

And where has the “Fuelling the Future” website gone now?

]]> By: Mark Forskitt http://transitionculture.org/2008/10/23/peak-oil-the-snake-in-the-loft/comment-page-1/#comment-59954 Mark Forskitt Sat, 25 Oct 2008 11:23:20 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1949#comment-59954 <p>I took three attempts to read that. I just could not get 'snake oil' out of my head.</p> I took three attempts to read that. I just could not get ’snake oil’ out of my head.

]]> By: Graham Burnett http://transitionculture.org/2008/10/23/peak-oil-the-snake-in-the-loft/comment-page-1/#comment-59950 Graham Burnett Fri, 24 Oct 2008 17:45:57 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1949#comment-59950 <p>The story kind of reminds me of that bit in the film Alien where they find the alien's discarded skin in cargo bay or wherever...</p> The story kind of reminds me of that bit in the film Alien where they find the alien’s discarded skin in cargo bay or wherever…

]]> By: Peak Oil, the Snake in the Loft, and the Chicken in the Greenhouse « Transition Farnham http://transitionculture.org/2008/10/23/peak-oil-the-snake-in-the-loft/comment-page-1/#comment-59944 Peak Oil, the Snake in the Loft, and the Chicken in the Greenhouse « Transition Farnham Fri, 24 Oct 2008 02:31:12 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1949#comment-59944 <p>[...] Founder of the Transition Movement.  He received the 2008 Schumacher award last week, and you can click here to read his most recent assessment of the economic/energy situation — a piece he intriguingly [...]</p> [...] Founder of the Transition Movement.  He received the 2008 Schumacher award last week, and you can click here to read his most recent assessment of the economic/energy situation — a piece he intriguingly [...]

]]> By: Stephen Washington http://transitionculture.org/2008/10/23/peak-oil-the-snake-in-the-loft/comment-page-1/#comment-59938 Stephen Washington Thu, 23 Oct 2008 17:15:39 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1949#comment-59938 <p>The price of oil and the supply/demand equation can be linked but not for long.</p> <p>There is still capacity in the supply side of oil and therefore there is room for the price to drop as demand decreases. Unfortunately, very soon there will be no capacity in the supply side because the world will continue to incrementally consume more oil and the oil industry will not have invested in production capacity due to global credit crunch, investors leaving oil and deep sea and non conventional oil being uneconomic at below $100 a barrel. Once there is a supply side restriction the global recession will be irrelevant. Crude will rise back to above $100 if the financial crisis eases or is prolonged.</p> <p>We hit Peak (or have done) and then oil production actually falls faster than predicted because the investment in capacity infrastruture was not there and trough demand is equal to peak supply. The result is that global oil reserves last longer simply becuase we can't suck it up fast enough, but oil prices escalate faster and the Saudi's are the last man standing.</p> <p>The real problem is that we did not have the additional money to invest in wind, solar, clean coal, biomass or electric vehicles because of the financial crisis and now there is no time left and all our money is going to buy oil.</p> The price of oil and the supply/demand equation can be linked but not for long.

There is still capacity in the supply side of oil and therefore there is room for the price to drop as demand decreases. Unfortunately, very soon there will be no capacity in the supply side because the world will continue to incrementally consume more oil and the oil industry will not have invested in production capacity due to global credit crunch, investors leaving oil and deep sea and non conventional oil being uneconomic at below $100 a barrel. Once there is a supply side restriction the global recession will be irrelevant. Crude will rise back to above $100 if the financial crisis eases or is prolonged.

We hit Peak (or have done) and then oil production actually falls faster than predicted because the investment in capacity infrastruture was not there and trough demand is equal to peak supply. The result is that global oil reserves last longer simply becuase we can’t suck it up fast enough, but oil prices escalate faster and the Saudi’s are the last man standing.

The real problem is that we did not have the additional money to invest in wind, solar, clean coal, biomass or electric vehicles because of the financial crisis and now there is no time left and all our money is going to buy oil.

]]> By: Patrick Cleary http://transitionculture.org/2008/10/23/peak-oil-the-snake-in-the-loft/comment-page-1/#comment-59936 Patrick Cleary Thu, 23 Oct 2008 12:12:20 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1949#comment-59936 <p>Peak oil doesn't negate the laws of supply and demand. Oil prices are falling because demand is falling more rapidly than supply.</p> <p>I think we need to be a bit wary of talking up the oil price. The debt implosion means we may well face years of relatively subdued demand for oil which could (temporarily) divert attention away from energy concerns and make the process of transition that much harder. There is no doubt that high prices really focus people's attention.</p> <p>What recent events bring home is that peak oil doesn't just manifest itself through higher prices but also via lower incomes. I think until recently it has been too easy for us just to focus on the price of oil.</p> Peak oil doesn’t negate the laws of supply and demand. Oil prices are falling because demand is falling more rapidly than supply.

I think we need to be a bit wary of talking up the oil price. The debt implosion means we may well face years of relatively subdued demand for oil which could (temporarily) divert attention away from energy concerns and make the process of transition that much harder. There is no doubt that high prices really focus people’s attention.

What recent events bring home is that peak oil doesn’t just manifest itself through higher prices but also via lower incomes. I think until recently it has been too easy for us just to focus on the price of oil.

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