Comments on: The Art of Wishful Thinking or Why The World Cup Finals Won’t Get Us Out of This http://transitionculture.org/2008/07/03/the-art-of-wishful-thinking-or-why-the-world-cup-finals-wont-get-us-out-of-this/ An Evolving Exploration into the Head, Heart and Hands of Energy Descent Thu, 18 Mar 2010 13:59:40 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Jason Cole http://transitionculture.org/2008/07/03/the-art-of-wishful-thinking-or-why-the-world-cup-finals-wont-get-us-out-of-this/comment-page-1/#comment-58305 Jason Cole Mon, 14 Jul 2008 22:02:47 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1260#comment-58305 <p>I've been saying this for months:</p> <p>2008 will be remembered as "The Year of Wishful Thinking".</p> I’ve been saying this for months:

2008 will be remembered as “The Year of Wishful Thinking”.

]]> By: Mike Grenville http://transitionculture.org/2008/07/03/the-art-of-wishful-thinking-or-why-the-world-cup-finals-wont-get-us-out-of-this/comment-page-1/#comment-58178 Mike Grenville Mon, 07 Jul 2008 11:39:15 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1260#comment-58178 <p>Hosting an Olypmic event isn't always a financial boost. The 1976 Olympics put Quebec in debt for three decades, with it only being paid off in 2006 with much of the debt serviced through a special tax on tobacco.</p> <p>This view by politicians that everything is under control is starting to be a cause for serious concern.</p> <p>Gordon Brown told a parliamentary committee that rising demand for oil in Asia meant that the current pressure on prices could remain in place over the long term. "If demand exceeds supply and is likely to exceed supply for years to come, people will expect the price to rise," the prime minister said. At the same time the chancellor denied the British economy was heading for recession. "The economy will continue to grow," he said, adding that it was also the view of a majority of forecasters in the City. The banking executives told Darling and Paulson that they believed the worst of the year-long credit crisis was now over.</p> <p>US treasury secretary, Henry Paulson said: "The predominant factor by far is supply and demand; the fact that global production and capacity haven't increased appreciably over the last 10 years, while demand has continued to grow and inventories are at low levels."</p> <p>Chancellor insists economy will grow, despite oil price nearing $150 http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/jul/04/economy.economicgr owth</p> Hosting an Olypmic event isn’t always a financial boost. The 1976 Olympics put Quebec in debt for three decades, with it only being paid off in 2006 with much of the debt serviced through a special tax on tobacco.

This view by politicians that everything is under control is starting to be a cause for serious concern.

Gordon Brown told a parliamentary committee that rising demand for oil in Asia meant that the current pressure on prices could remain in place over the long term. “If demand exceeds supply and is likely to exceed supply for years to come, people will expect the price to rise,” the prime minister said. At the same time the chancellor denied the British economy was heading for recession. “The economy will continue to grow,” he said, adding that it was also the view of a majority of forecasters in the City. The banking executives told Darling and Paulson that they believed the worst of the year-long credit crisis was now over.

US treasury secretary, Henry Paulson said:
“The predominant factor by far is supply and demand; the fact that global production and capacity haven’t increased appreciably over the last 10 years, while demand has continued to grow and inventories are at low levels.”

Chancellor insists economy will grow, despite oil price nearing $150
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/jul/04/economy.economicgr
owth

]]> By: Bill Hopkins http://transitionculture.org/2008/07/03/the-art-of-wishful-thinking-or-why-the-world-cup-finals-wont-get-us-out-of-this/comment-page-1/#comment-58169 Bill Hopkins Sun, 06 Jul 2008 18:18:40 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1260#comment-58169 <p>Dear Rob, I wonder how the proposed eco-towns fit in with your thinking? Surely, we need to build towns that consume zero carbon, and refurb existing homes to low energy standards. Individual actions (I put a solar panel on my roof) will not make the big impact that is required. Does proposal for Pennbury (Leicester, U.K.) fit in with your ideas? http://www.harboroughonline.co.uk/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1389</p> Dear Rob, I wonder how the proposed eco-towns fit in with your thinking? Surely, we need to build towns that consume zero carbon, and refurb existing homes to low energy standards. Individual actions (I put a solar panel on my roof) will not make the big impact that is required. Does proposal for Pennbury (Leicester, U.K.) fit in with your ideas?
http://www.harboroughonline.co.uk/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1389

]]> By: Eric http://transitionculture.org/2008/07/03/the-art-of-wishful-thinking-or-why-the-world-cup-finals-wont-get-us-out-of-this/comment-page-1/#comment-58165 Eric Sun, 06 Jul 2008 03:21:29 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1260#comment-58165 <p>I meant 'you cant email Marx' . . . . erm</p> I meant ‘you cant email Marx’ . . . . erm

]]> By: Eric http://transitionculture.org/2008/07/03/the-art-of-wishful-thinking-or-why-the-world-cup-finals-wont-get-us-out-of-this/comment-page-1/#comment-58164 Eric Sun, 06 Jul 2008 03:14:39 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1260#comment-58164 <p>Hi Mick Mack.</p> <p>I feel that socialists (ideological marxists) and most permaculture and eco activists, are caught in a 1920 or 1980 view of the world.</p> <p>That is, the people will rise up rationally and change things, according to your viewpoint of the end result of change.</p> <p>The constant use of the word 'capitalism' and its terribleness means that while you sit and talk about current events through this looking glass, you arent listening to what is happening on the ground.</p> <p>People are changing only due to finances. Not belief. It could be argued that people are willing to sacrifice their lifestyle for an abstract thing (in their eyes) like global warming . . . but I doubt it.</p> <p>People are taking public transport grumpily, and will go back to old ways at a stroke. Thats why most people want petrol prices to go down. So that they can get on with how things are.</p> <p>Even tho I was an eco activist, I am still centred in the current cultural and societal ways. So, I need to constantly take myself out of this world, like not becoming too attached to my mobile phone for example, to stay detached. So that whatever happens, I am ready.</p> <p>20 year old Marxists may be able to live without their mobile less than 20 year old airheads, but in the end, we are all in the same boat.</p> <p>I dont see leadership in your statements. I see you speaking of Trotsky more than how the Market works. So, although I would agree with some things you say, its not you I pay attention to when I want to keep up to date with what is happening at the moment, amongst ordinary people and the people who run the world. Only there will I get a better sense of where the winds are blowing.</p> <p>Yours in on an old recording. Marx was pre-Internet. He had nice points, but I can email him.</p> Hi Mick Mack.

I feel that socialists (ideological marxists) and most permaculture and eco activists, are caught in a 1920 or 1980 view of the world.

That is, the people will rise up rationally and change things, according to your viewpoint of the end result of change.

The constant use of the word ‘capitalism’ and its terribleness means that while you sit and talk about current events through this looking glass, you arent listening to what is happening on the ground.

People are changing only due to finances. Not belief. It could be argued that people are willing to sacrifice their lifestyle for an abstract thing (in their eyes) like global warming . . . but I doubt it.

People are taking public transport grumpily, and will go back to old ways at a stroke. Thats why most people want petrol prices to go down. So that they can get on with how things are.

Even tho I was an eco activist, I am still centred in the current cultural and societal ways. So, I need to constantly take myself out of this world, like not becoming too attached to my mobile phone for example, to stay detached. So that whatever happens, I am ready.

20 year old Marxists may be able to live without their mobile less than 20 year old airheads, but in the end, we are all in the same boat.

I dont see leadership in your statements. I see you speaking of Trotsky more than how the Market works. So, although I would agree with some things you say, its not you I pay attention to when I want to keep up to date with what is happening at the moment, amongst ordinary people and the people who run the world. Only there will I get a better sense of where the winds are blowing.

Yours in on an old recording. Marx was pre-Internet. He had nice points, but I can email him.

]]> By: Greenpa http://transitionculture.org/2008/07/03/the-art-of-wishful-thinking-or-why-the-world-cup-finals-wont-get-us-out-of-this/comment-page-1/#comment-58153 Greenpa Fri, 04 Jul 2008 13:13:25 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1260#comment-58153 <p>Mick Mack- we're in substantial agreement. The transition movement is not going to "save" everything. Quite a lot of current culture is not going to survive- or at least, I don't see how. Where my brain is at the moment, I'm taking that more and more for granted- not good for communication, I know. I think a good well united Transition Town could survive what's coming, though; and come out the other side able to provide a good template to build on.</p> Mick Mack- we’re in substantial agreement. The transition movement is not going to “save” everything. Quite a lot of current culture is not going to survive- or at least, I don’t see how. Where my brain is at the moment, I’m taking that more and more for granted- not good for communication, I know. I think a good well united Transition Town could survive what’s coming, though; and come out the other side able to provide a good template to build on.

]]> By: Shaun Chamberlin http://transitionculture.org/2008/07/03/the-art-of-wishful-thinking-or-why-the-world-cup-finals-wont-get-us-out-of-this/comment-page-1/#comment-58152 Shaun Chamberlin Fri, 04 Jul 2008 11:44:42 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1260#comment-58152 <p>What gets me is the current politic-ing going on around who gets to host the World Cups in 2018 and 2022.</p> <p>I've long thought this is a little strange considering how different the world is likely to look by then, but now that I understand that World Cups are the salvation of the economy all becomes clear ;)</p> What gets me is the current politic-ing going on around who gets to host the World Cups in 2018 and 2022.

I’ve long thought this is a little strange considering how different the world is likely to look by then, but now that I understand that World Cups are the salvation of the economy all becomes clear ;)

]]> By: Finn Jackson http://transitionculture.org/2008/07/03/the-art-of-wishful-thinking-or-why-the-world-cup-finals-wont-get-us-out-of-this/comment-page-1/#comment-58149 Finn Jackson Fri, 04 Jul 2008 10:48:47 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1260#comment-58149 <p>Thank you Rob, once again.</p> <p>Finn</p> Thank you Rob, once again.

Finn

]]> By: Mick Mack http://transitionculture.org/2008/07/03/the-art-of-wishful-thinking-or-why-the-world-cup-finals-wont-get-us-out-of-this/comment-page-1/#comment-58140 Mick Mack Thu, 03 Jul 2008 21:43:48 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1260#comment-58140 <p>I think it misleading to believe that transition initiatives are able to deliver the kind of change necessary to deal with the crises looming. The collective political strength of the majority of people in England expressed through local Councils of Action with the intent to expropriate and nationalise to manage the resources that will be resisted by a ruthless and bloody-minded minority will be closer to the reality. Although I believe that Permaculture has a lot to offer in terms of more intelligent management of resources, until you have 'ownership' of those resources it's an idea, i.e consistent with a philosphical outlook that hasn't fully grasped the significance of the historical period in which we find ourselves; transitional yes, to a fundamentally different economic system that completely changes the relations to the means of production based on need, not the monopoly of surplus value. For all the contribution of 'localisation' it doesn't deal with the fundamentals facing people in relation to an economic system which will not allow them the luxury of such a change. Marx foresaw this problem 150 years ago and it has still not been resolved. Leon Trotsky pointed the way in his 'Transitional Programme' written in 1938, a copy of which I sent to Rob over 2 years ago. Like it or not, history repeatedly shows us that it will, unfortunately, be a violent confrontation for control of those resources before we have the chance to alter our relationship with Nature for the future survival of humanity. Collective political organisation to face the Capitalist onslaught will be the mass response. Are we with them or given to repeating what would be nice?</p> I think it misleading to believe that transition initiatives are able to deliver the kind of change necessary to deal with the crises looming. The collective political strength of the majority of people in England expressed through local Councils of Action with the intent to expropriate and nationalise to manage the resources that will be resisted by a ruthless and bloody-minded minority will be closer to the reality. Although I believe that Permaculture has a lot to offer in terms of more intelligent management of resources, until you have ‘ownership’ of those resources it’s an idea, i.e consistent with a philosphical outlook that hasn’t fully grasped the significance of the historical period in which we find ourselves; transitional yes, to a fundamentally different economic system that completely changes the relations to the means of production based on need, not the monopoly of surplus value. For all the contribution of ‘localisation’ it doesn’t deal with the fundamentals facing people in relation to an economic system which will not allow them the luxury of such a change. Marx foresaw this problem 150 years ago and it has still not been resolved. Leon Trotsky pointed the way in his ‘Transitional Programme’ written in 1938, a copy of which I sent to Rob over 2 years ago. Like it or not, history repeatedly shows us that it will, unfortunately, be a violent confrontation for control of those resources before we have the chance to alter our relationship with Nature for the future survival of humanity. Collective political organisation to face the Capitalist onslaught will be the mass response. Are we with them or given to repeating what would be nice?

]]> By: Justin http://transitionculture.org/2008/07/03/the-art-of-wishful-thinking-or-why-the-world-cup-finals-wont-get-us-out-of-this/comment-page-1/#comment-58139 Justin Thu, 03 Jul 2008 21:35:18 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1260#comment-58139 <p>I'd just like to add something about the “well, we’ll just do a bit of everything in the hope that something might work” government strategy. This seems to be clearly in the anti-boat rocking mentality, because governments respond to voting pressure, and the majority don't want their boats rocked. Majority governments do not seem to be in the business of deciding how best to look after the country, just on avoiding enough bad news to stay in power. Unfortunately for us picking holes in the free market optimistic vision sounds very much like causing a recession, so free economists and businessmen have to sell optimism very loudly to encourage yet more consumption.</p> <p>The irony is that building community resilience and re-gearing our entire infrastructure to use natural renewable resources stimulates plenty of activity, innovation and happiness!</p> I’d just like to add something about the
“well, we’ll just do a bit of everything in the hope that something might work” government strategy. This seems to be clearly in the anti-boat rocking mentality, because governments respond to voting pressure, and the majority don’t want their boats rocked. Majority governments do not seem to be in the business of deciding how best to look after the country, just on avoiding enough bad news to stay in power.
Unfortunately for us picking holes in the free market optimistic vision sounds very much like causing a recession, so free economists and businessmen have to sell optimism very loudly to encourage yet more consumption.

The irony is that building community resilience and re-gearing our entire infrastructure to use natural renewable resources stimulates plenty of activity, innovation and happiness!

]]> By: Greenpa http://transitionculture.org/2008/07/03/the-art-of-wishful-thinking-or-why-the-world-cup-finals-wont-get-us-out-of-this/comment-page-1/#comment-58134 Greenpa Thu, 03 Jul 2008 13:09:11 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1260#comment-58134 <p>Rob-"We need to stop focusing on big infrastructure projects that are designed to work only in the context of economic growth and cheap energy, and focus instead, as Transition Initiatives across the world are now doing, on resilience..."</p> <p>Absolutely true. But the people embedded in the old world are just not ever going to listen, or change. The most powerful thing you can do is exactly what you are doing- getting communities launched on new paths. Those examples are going to be the only arguments that work.</p> <p>Quite a few of the financial pundits making soothing noises know perfectly well that they are lying in their teeth. But the longer they can convince regular folk to keep their retirement pennies in "the Market" - the more money they can make. It's brutally self centered behavior.</p> <p>Some of them, of course, are just truly delusional. Either way- these are people you do not want to be listening to.</p> <p>It's gotten very desperate already. Yesterday in the US, the GOOD news was that Starbucks; the coffee money machine; has decided to close 600 shops, and fire all the employees associated with them.</p> <p>Seriously; this was touted as good news. They were "dealing with reality!" - and plummeting profits. Good management!</p> <p>Our pundits were predicting a nice bounce up for the market, in response to this "good news". The Dow dropped 160 points.</p> <p>Run, do not walk, to the exits.</p> Rob-”We need to stop focusing on big infrastructure projects that are designed to work only in the context of economic growth and cheap energy, and focus instead, as Transition Initiatives across the world are now doing, on resilience…”

Absolutely true. But the people embedded in the old world are just not ever going to listen, or change. The most powerful thing you can do is exactly what you are doing- getting communities launched on new paths. Those examples are going to be the only arguments that work.

Quite a few of the financial pundits making soothing noises know perfectly well that they are lying in their teeth. But the longer they can convince regular folk to keep their retirement pennies in “the Market” – the more money they can make. It’s brutally self centered behavior.

Some of them, of course, are just truly delusional. Either way- these are people you do not want to be listening to.

It’s gotten very desperate already. Yesterday in the US, the GOOD news was that Starbucks; the coffee money machine; has decided to close 600 shops, and fire all the employees associated with them.

Seriously; this was touted as good news. They were “dealing with reality!” – and plummeting profits. Good management!

Our pundits were predicting a nice bounce up for the market, in response to this “good news”. The Dow dropped 160 points.

Run, do not walk, to the exits.

]]> By: Tom A http://transitionculture.org/2008/07/03/the-art-of-wishful-thinking-or-why-the-world-cup-finals-wont-get-us-out-of-this/comment-page-1/#comment-58117 Tom A Thu, 03 Jul 2008 09:25:32 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/?p=1260#comment-58117 <p>I think the pertinent bit in Euan Mern's article is in the conclusion:</p> <p>"Society becomes more polarised into those who can still afford to drive an SUV, live in comfort and warmth and fill their bellies with prime Aberdeen Angus steak set against a new under class who struggle to feed and heat their families."</p> <p>Until the <b>majority</b> of people are really suffering governments will do very little. And that's a lot of suffering and wasted resources. Don't hold your breath waiting for them to 'get it' whilst there are still plenty of people getting rich.</p> <p>On the other hand, London has the Olypmics in 2012 so everything should come good again then...</p> I think the pertinent bit in Euan Mern’s article is in the conclusion:

“Society becomes more polarised into those who can still afford to drive an SUV, live in comfort and warmth and fill their bellies with prime Aberdeen Angus steak set against a new under class who struggle to feed and heat their families.”

Until the majority of people are really suffering governments will do very little. And that’s a lot of suffering and wasted resources. Don’t hold your breath waiting for them to ‘get it’ whilst there are still plenty of people getting rich.

On the other hand, London has the Olypmics in 2012 so everything should come good again then…

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