Comments on: Why Planning for $200 Barrel Oil is so Important, or, Why Government is Failing Us in Times of Transition http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/ An Evolving Exploration into the Head, Heart and Hands of Energy Descent Thu, 24 May 2012 06:51:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Exista viata si dupa petrol! « A pocket full of Clemsonite http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57700 Exista viata si dupa petrol! « A pocket full of Clemsonite Sat, 31 May 2008 12:44:01 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57700 <p>[...] O cautare sumara pe web dupa cuvinte-cheie gen “oil peak” sunt suficiente pentru a lamuri despre ce vorbesc. In fine, problema pare a afecta mai mult pe cei din economiile cu adevarat avansate, care depinde in mod serios de aceste resurse energetice. Aparent, in afara unor proiecte gigantice precum al NASA de a crea o statie spatiala care sa capteze energie solara si apoi s-o trimita pe Pamant, alte chestii care sa rezolve o buna parte a problemei resurselor nu prea exista. Fisiunea nucleara se bazeaza pe minereuri greu de extras si prezinta riscuri serioase in exploatare, fuziunea pare a fi doar un basm, de ars vom mai avea lemn si carbune, cel putin pentru o vreme. Energia solara este captivanta ca idee, insa eficienta celulelor fotovoltaice este scazuta, plus ca acestea sunt construite din tot felul de materiale care necesita multa energie in procesul constructiei, si apoi mai au si o durata de viata limitata, asa ca per total s-ar putea sa nu fie asa economicoase. Ar mai fi energia hidroelectrica, ce merita o soarta mai buna. Pe alocuri, de asemenea, energia vantului si cea geotermala abia asteapta punerea la munca. clipped from transitionculture.org [...]</p> [...] O cautare sumara pe web dupa cuvinte-cheie gen “oil peak” sunt suficiente pentru a lamuri despre ce vorbesc. In fine, problema pare a afecta mai mult pe cei din economiile cu adevarat avansate, care depinde in mod serios de aceste resurse energetice. Aparent, in afara unor proiecte gigantice precum al NASA de a crea o statie spatiala care sa capteze energie solara si apoi s-o trimita pe Pamant, alte chestii care sa rezolve o buna parte a problemei resurselor nu prea exista. Fisiunea nucleara se bazeaza pe minereuri greu de extras si prezinta riscuri serioase in exploatare, fuziunea pare a fi doar un basm, de ars vom mai avea lemn si carbune, cel putin pentru o vreme. Energia solara este captivanta ca idee, insa eficienta celulelor fotovoltaice este scazuta, plus ca acestea sunt construite din tot felul de materiale care necesita multa energie in procesul constructiei, si apoi mai au si o durata de viata limitata, asa ca per total s-ar putea sa nu fie asa economicoase. Ar mai fi energia hidroelectrica, ce merita o soarta mai buna. Pe alocuri, de asemenea, energia vantului si cea geotermala abia asteapta punerea la munca. clipped from transitionculture.org [...]

]]> By: Smokewriting - Another Fine Edition of Me http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57668 Smokewriting - Another Fine Edition of Me Thu, 29 May 2008 09:41:18 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57668 <p>[...] for the assigning of values to variables, the recent surge in the price of oil has, as been noted here by Rob Hopkins, made a mockery of the Government’s scenarios in this year’s Energy [...]</p> [...] for the assigning of values to variables, the recent surge in the price of oil has, as been noted here by Rob Hopkins, made a mockery of the Government’s scenarios in this year’s Energy [...]

]]> By: Mauibrad http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57596 Mauibrad Sun, 25 May 2008 08:15:06 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57596 <p>Good topic...$200 per barrel. Surprised there isn't much more out there on it.</p> <p>I'm looking for what is the high price per barrel at which trucking companies, shipping companies, utilities, banks, etc. can no longer effectively operate? Would it be higher or lower than $200 per barrel, esp. for transportation companies? Anybody out there know or done a good analysis on it?</p> <p>Aloha, Brad</p> Good topic…$200 per barrel. Surprised there isn’t much more out there on it.

I’m looking for what is the high price per barrel at which trucking companies, shipping companies, utilities, banks, etc. can no longer effectively operate? Would it be higher or lower than $200 per barrel, esp. for transportation companies? Anybody out there know or done a good analysis on it?

Aloha, Brad

]]> By: Neil L http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57579 Neil L Fri, 23 May 2008 14:47:18 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57579 <p>An interesting article on the MSN website http://money.uk.msn.com/investing/articles/nicklouth/article.aspx?cp-documentid=8133723</p> <p>Actually speaking a bit of sense to say that this price increase is not temporary but is here to stay. No explicit mention of peak oil.</p> <p>A great 'royal' quote: King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia summed up the new conservation attitude, one which perhaps Britain should have followed with North Sea oil, when he said "I keep no secret form you that when there are some new [oil] finds, I said: 'No, leave it in the ground, with grace from God our children need it.'"</p> An interesting article on the MSN website http://money.uk.msn.com/investing/articles/nicklouth/article.aspx?cp-documentid=8133723

Actually speaking a bit of sense to say that this price increase is not temporary but is here to stay. No explicit mention of peak oil.

A great ‘royal’ quote: King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia summed up the new conservation attitude, one which perhaps Britain should have followed with North Sea oil, when he said “I keep no secret form you that when there are some new [oil] finds, I said: ‘No, leave it in the ground, with grace from God our children need it.’”

]]> By: ROG http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57569 ROG Thu, 22 May 2008 23:19:44 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57569 <p>The danger of predicting higher oil prices in the near to medium future is that it gives people the impression that as long as they have some cash they'll still be able to nip down to local petrol station and fill up as usual. The only thing that will have changed is the price on the board. This may turn out to be misleading. We have been told for twenty or thirty years that free markets are as close as we're going to get to the 'perfect market' conditions economists seem to like. But with oil we are very far from a free market and even further from a perfect one. Before oil prices go up all that much further we'll be facing a situation of absolute supply shortage. In other words when we go to the pump for our expensive petrol, someone else in another country will already have bought it. This is already happening in many parts of the world. Ironically, it often happens in oil exporting countries too - that's how imperfect the market for oil is. What we should now be paying attention to is the legal framework for emergency measures in the event of widespread oil shortage. I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen, but if it does, the laws that will come into effect have the potential, from a 'transition' perspective, to make the situation worse, rather than better. In a time of shortage, there will be some kind of prioritisation of who gets the supply, and, crucially, this is already legislated for. This will clearly affect the directtion of society from that point on. In particular, many of the existing emergency laws will probably assume that the 'emergency' is temporary and things will return to 'normal' later. One of the best thigs transition people could do vis-a-vis national government is to influence the legal framework to make it more receptive to the possibility that, allowing for some fluctuations, this situation is permanent and is not, in fact, an emergency.</p> The danger of predicting higher oil prices in the near to medium future is that it gives people the impression that as long as they have some cash they’ll still be able to nip down to local petrol station and fill up as usual. The only thing that will have changed is the price on the board. This may turn out to be misleading. We have been told for twenty or thirty years that free markets are as close as we’re going to get to the ‘perfect market’ conditions economists seem to like. But with oil we are very far from a free market and even further from a perfect one. Before oil prices go up all that much further we’ll be facing a situation of absolute supply shortage. In other words when we go to the pump for our expensive petrol, someone else in another country will already have bought it. This is already happening in many parts of the world. Ironically, it often happens in oil exporting countries too – that’s how imperfect the market for oil is. What we should now be paying attention to is the legal framework for emergency measures in the event of widespread oil shortage. I’m not saying it’s definitely going to happen, but if it does, the laws that will come into effect have the potential, from a ‘transition’ perspective, to make the situation worse, rather than better. In a time of shortage, there will be some kind of prioritisation of who gets the supply, and, crucially, this is already legislated for. This will clearly affect the directtion of society from that point on. In particular, many of the existing emergency laws will probably assume that the ‘emergency’ is temporary and things will return to ‘normal’ later. One of the best thigs transition people could do vis-a-vis national government is to influence the legal framework to make it more receptive to the possibility that, allowing for some fluctuations, this situation is permanent and is not, in fact, an emergency.

]]> By: Neil L http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57565 Neil L Thu, 22 May 2008 13:51:58 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57565 <p>Today - Thu 22 May - $135 a barrel is here - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7414093.stm - a $4 increase on the previous day!</p> <p>Plus a few stories that were briefly reported in the Metro whilst on my commute to work today...</p> <p>1) Protests in Indonesia against rising fuel costs - a 30% increase in recent weeks</p> <p>2) French fisherman blockade Calais and Boulogne in protests at rising fuels costs - since November diesel has risen from 32p a litre to 55p a litre - and they can't catch more fish to offset rises due to EU quotas</p> <p>3) Call for help as gallon of fuel tops £6 - rural communities in Scotland have called for government help as rural garages charging above the national average for fuel</p> <p>4) Burma rejects US aid offer over fears for oil - Burma's junta claims that aid offer 'comes with strings attached' that are 'not acceptable' to the Burmese people' as they think the US will try to steal oil supplies</p> <p>Not sure what to make of it all - passed the tipping point??</p> Today – Thu 22 May – $135 a barrel is here – http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7414093.stm –
a $4 increase on the previous day!

Plus a few stories that were briefly reported in the Metro whilst on my commute to work today…

1) Protests in Indonesia against rising fuel costs – a 30% increase in recent weeks

2) French fisherman blockade Calais and Boulogne in protests at rising fuels costs – since November diesel has risen from 32p a litre to 55p a litre – and they can’t catch more fish to offset rises due to EU quotas

3) Call for help as gallon of fuel tops £6 – rural communities in Scotland have called for government help as rural garages charging above the national average for fuel

4) Burma rejects US aid offer over fears for oil – Burma’s junta claims that aid offer ‘comes with strings attached’ that are ‘not acceptable’ to the Burmese people’ as they think the US will try to steal oil supplies

Not sure what to make of it all – passed the tipping point??

]]> By: mat noir http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57550 mat noir Wed, 21 May 2008 20:04:54 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57550 <p>Paralysis of governments and despair of people results from sheer absence of alternatives that would fix the oil problem overnight or even in a generation. Neither blue collar scientists nor market systems based on quarterly results are in any position to offer a business-as-usual solution.</p> <p>Even longer-term solutions involve pain, suffering, and war. How many politicians can admit to that and survive?</p> Paralysis of governments and despair of people results from sheer absence of alternatives that would fix the oil problem overnight or even in a generation. Neither blue collar scientists nor market systems based on quarterly results are in any position to offer a business-as-usual solution.

Even longer-term solutions involve pain, suffering, and war. How many politicians can admit to that and survive?

]]> By: Michael Connolly http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57546 Michael Connolly Wed, 21 May 2008 13:47:43 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57546 <p>By the time they admit the house is on fire all we will be able to do is fire fight "with no water" My mother used to say "You cant fatten a pig on market day". The human project resembles nothing as much as cancer. If you ask a person who is aware of our predicament what they are willing to do to safeguard their children's future they will say anything but do nothing. We behave in a malignant way constantinaly putting our immediate wants ahead of future needs even when that compromises our children's ability to feed themselves.</p> By the time they admit the house is on fire all we will be able to do is fire fight “with no water” My mother used to say “You cant fatten a pig on market day”. The human project resembles nothing as much as cancer. If you ask a person who is aware of our predicament what they are willing to do to safeguard their children’s future they will say anything but do nothing. We behave in a malignant way constantinaly putting our immediate wants ahead of future needs even when that compromises our children’s ability to feed themselves.

]]> By: Dominique Kuster http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57545 Dominique Kuster Wed, 21 May 2008 13:04:25 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57545 <p>This denial is not unique to the british government, I've seen similar numbers (or even worse but they were published in January 2007) from the swiss federal department of energy.</p> <p>I guess that if they decided to start planning with real, non-cornucopians, numbers the conclusions would look like the Hirsh report and they are afraid of it because it would break all their illusions.</p> <p>Anyway, this is another sample of the uselessness of governments to manage our changing future. Change must be induced by ourselves.</p> <p>I take this opportunity to announce to french readers that a group is working on the translation of the "Transition initiative primer" into french: http://groups.google.com/group/objectif-resilience</p> <p>Kind regards</p> This denial is not unique to the british government, I’ve seen similar numbers (or even worse but they were published in January 2007) from the swiss federal department of energy.

I guess that if they decided to start planning with real, non-cornucopians, numbers the conclusions would look like the Hirsh report and they are afraid of it because it would break all their illusions.

Anyway, this is another sample of the uselessness of governments to manage our changing future. Change must be induced by ourselves.

I take this opportunity to announce to french readers that a group is working on the translation of the “Transition initiative primer” into french: http://groups.google.com/group/objectif-resilience

Kind regards

]]> By: Francis Macnaughton http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57542 Francis Macnaughton Wed, 21 May 2008 07:35:04 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57542 <p>I raised this very issue with Anthony Steen, the Totnes MP, 3 weekends ago when he opened Sustainable South Brent's "one year on" event. I still live in hope that he will raise it via more PQs but I am not holding my breath. I can only suggest that everyone who is concerned about this matter and PO generally approach their own MPs to highlight this gross failure of government to adequately plan for the future.</p> I raised this very issue with Anthony Steen, the Totnes MP, 3 weekends ago when he opened Sustainable South Brent’s “one year on” event. I still live in hope that he will raise it via more PQs but I am not holding my breath. I can only suggest that everyone who is concerned about this matter and PO generally approach their own MPs to highlight this gross failure of government to adequately plan for the future.

]]> By: Doug Low http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57538 Doug Low Tue, 20 May 2008 22:40:07 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57538 <p>When I was with the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, myself, Chris Skrebowski and Richard Hardman (both ODAC Trustees) met a team of four (economists) from the BERR Oil Markets team. Only one of them did all the talking on their behalf, and she said that oil prices would have to reach $500/barrel before they had a negative effect on the UK economy. Perhaps BERR is not worried about oil reaching $200/barrel?</p> When I was with the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, myself, Chris Skrebowski and Richard Hardman (both ODAC Trustees) met a team of four (economists) from the BERR Oil Markets team. Only one of them did all the talking on their behalf, and she said that oil prices would have to reach $500/barrel before they had a negative effect on the UK economy. Perhaps BERR is not worried about oil reaching $200/barrel?

]]> By: Jason Cole http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57537 Jason Cole Tue, 20 May 2008 20:02:06 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57537 <p><i>I personally feel a rising sense of panic due to the inaction present in central government at the moment.</i> Yep, me too. Include society, pressure groups and the media as well; it's not only the Government who are paralysed.</p> I personally feel a rising sense of panic due to the inaction present in central government at the moment.
Yep, me too. Include society, pressure groups and the media as well; it’s not only the Government who are paralysed.

]]> By: John Marshall http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57528 John Marshall Tue, 20 May 2008 15:19:39 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57528 <p>It's likely that the Government and their advisors are in denial over peak oil since to initiate enquiries leading to proper contingency planning would, in their view bring about the second mode stated by Schlesinger (panic). It is insulting to say the least that our elected representatives have so little trust in the people of this country that they feel we will panic over sensible measures. I personally feel a rising sense of panic due to the inaction present in central government at the moment. I hope that all of our MP's have signed John Hemmings Early Day Motion.</p> It’s likely that the Government and their advisors are in denial over peak oil since to initiate enquiries leading to proper contingency planning would, in their view bring about the second mode stated by Schlesinger (panic). It is insulting to say the least that our elected representatives have so little trust in the people of this country that they feel we will panic over sensible measures.
I personally feel a rising sense of panic due to the inaction present in central government at the moment.
I hope that all of our MP’s have signed John Hemmings Early Day Motion.

]]> By: Rob http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57527 Rob Tue, 20 May 2008 14:10:18 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57527 <p>To add a quote here that I came across today which sums up the above very nicely...</p> <p>“We have only two modes - complacency and panic.”</p> <p>James R. Schlesinger, the first U.S. Dept. of Energy secretary, on the country's approach to energy (1977).</p> <p>We are still stuck in the first mode, but the second can't be too far off...</p> To add a quote here that I came across today which sums up the above very nicely…

“We have only two modes – complacency and panic.”

James R. Schlesinger, the first U.S. Dept. of Energy secretary, on the country’s approach to energy (1977).

We are still stuck in the first mode, but the second can’t be too far off…

]]> By: PSJ http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/comment-page-1/#comment-57526 PSJ Tue, 20 May 2008 11:09:39 +0000 http://transitionculture.org/2008/05/20/why-planning-for-200-barrel-oil-is-so-important-or-why-government-is-failing-us-in-times-of-transition/#comment-57526 <p>The government/civil service, on this issue, perhaps should be seen as either guilty of criminal obfuscation, gross incompetence or living in la-la land. So many departments and ministries have been engaged on this issue, and it is all over the media, that there is no excuse for not knowing.</p> <p>They are so out of line with the views of the independent experts and business analysts it is quite staggering, yet there is no way that they can be held to account.</p> The government/civil service, on this issue, perhaps should be seen as either guilty of criminal obfuscation, gross incompetence or living in la-la land. So many departments and ministries have been engaged on this issue, and it is all over the media, that there is no excuse for not knowing.

They are so out of line with the views of the independent experts and business analysts it is quite staggering, yet there is no way that they can be held to account.

]]>