Reasoning like this is why LTG was booed down to begin with. There’s nothing arithmetically wrong but the argument is ridiculous from a practical point of view.

Meadows is a one trick pony and the limits to exponential growth is his hobby horse.

The “fact” that a 20% YOY growth rate would never break even is a p*ss poor reason not to build reactors. The same reasoning can be applied to ANY energy production scheme. The growth rate for no net return might be 30% for a coal generator and 25% for a NG generator but that’s no reason not to build them.

I want to be perfectly clear what I’m objecting to. It’s not his numbers, it’s his dimwitted reasoning about them. He presents this line of reasoning as if it is a perfectly legitimate talking point about why nuclear energy shouldn’t be pursued. Horsepuckee!

Could I more accurately infer from the link you give to his original talk that ” A system building 10% more plants each year gives positive net energy in the 15th year.” And this is the best we could do and still not be able to make-up the shortfall.

Here I’ve cut and pasted the 6th bullet from Dennis’slide which I’ve quoted below.

“Years for Nuclear to
Give Back Energy
• Assume 4 year construction time.
• Assume 40 year operating life.
• Assume energy payback is 10.
• One plant starts to give net energy in the 9th year.
• A system building one plant/year gives positive net energy in the 13th year.
• A system building 10% more plants each year gives positive net energy in the 15th year.
• A system building 20% more plants each year never breaks
even.”

In any case, I suppose I could always buy his book to get the full story.

I would recommend making the switch after a period of critical work and play with it. (And to be on the safe side, you would be able to operate using both, until you’ve complete confidence).

You should be able to get it on CD from a magazine if a massive download is undesireable, or email me!

I would like to, but unfortunately I was got, you see, by doing a degree with no previous history of using computers, and learnt in the college on Windows. Having learnt on it, it is now what I am familiar with.

I would definitely like to make the switch, any tips as to how one can switch to Open Source without sharing a house with a computer nerd who can help you out when you get stuck? And without taking a week off work to focus on it? Any tips appreciated. Thanks for bringing up Open Source, it is a very important aspect of all this…