5 Jun 2006
ASPO Conference in Cork - A Report.
Association for the Study of Peak Oil Conference, Cork City, Ireland. May 31st 2006. A Report by Graham Strouts.
Some 70 delegates from business, farming and community groups attended “Peak Oil: Business Threats and Opportunities�, the first ASPO Ireland conference, held at the Maryborough Hotel and Spa Douglas, Cork City. ASPO is the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, founded by oil geologist and Grandfather of Peak Oil, Dr.Colin Campbell 1997. Organised by Katie Buckley of ASPO- Ireland, and chaired by RTE journalist Philip Boucher-Hayes, whose recent radio series on Peak Oil has done much to bring the concept into the average household.
The conference was opened by an address by Dr Colin Campbell who put the geological situation starkly us: following the peak of global oil discovery in the 1960s, the world is approaching or at an all-time high of oil production and we need to prepare for the inevitable decline, which will bring escalating prices and perhaps shortages. Dr. Campbell also outlined what he sees as the danger of impending financial crises, stock market collapse and even a “second great depression� as investors wake up to the reality that future economic growth will be severely curtailed or even reversed by energy shortages.
He advocates the adoption of the Energy Depletion Protocol, whereby producing nations cut their production by an agreed “depletion rate� – the rate that the world’s total reserves are being depleted by- and consuming countries, including Ireland, cut their consumption by the same amount. To make this work, accurate data should be collected by a new international agency dedicated to the calculation of the depletion rate. We should resign from the International Energy Agency, whose data ASPO consider inadequate.
While the per capita oil and gas consumption in Ireland is excessive, on a world scale our national needs are modest. However, there is still an urgent need to provide the public with proper information about the energy situation and the likely impacts on daily life. Radical changes will be needed, especially in the areas of transport, tourism, the financial sector and construction. Farmers, local producers and renewable energy companies may stand to gain, at least in the short term.
Dr. Campbell concluded with his well-known view that “the Celtic Fox is alive and well in Ireland; the Tiger belongs in the zoo.� On the panel to discuss these issues were: Dr. Brian O’Gallachoir, co-ordinator of UCC’s Master’s Programme in Sustainable Energy, who pointed out that the government’s aim at achieving 13% of our electricity needs from renewables by 2010 would only be a first step since electricity only represents 1/3 of our total energy consumption, and asked “At what point will we stop burying our heads in the sand?�
Dr. Roger Bentley, a physicist from Reading University who has been researching solar energy for over 12 years, talked of the need for businesses to make “far-reaching� decisions, and drew attention to the absurdity of sitting in a conference room on a sunny day with only artificial lighting; Tim Cowhig, head of natural resources at SWS in Bandon, drew attention to the absence of a National Energy Policy. He also claimed that renewables could possibly supply 30-50% of our energy needs, but it was not clear if this referred to total energy use or just electricity; Dr. Jerry Murphy of CIT talked briefly about the potential to provide energy from waste, and pointed to the example of Sweden which aims to become independent of fossil fuels by 2020; Alan Navratil, chair of the Cork Environmental Forum, gave an impassioned plea for the restoration of the sugar-beet processing plant in Carlow, claiming that energy crops could contribute 5-7% of our net requirements by the addition to petrol. “Unless we safeguard our national industries� he said “the Celtic Tiger will keel over and die�. Eamonn Ryan, T.D., of the Green Party, also spoke, saying that the energy crises would- or at least, should “define the budget�, and also called for a national energy plan.
After the break, Phoebe Bright of Vivid Logic outlined aspects of her work looking at the impacts of peak oil on business, which she presented under four different “energy scenarios� (see www.energyscenariosireland.com. Phoebe stressed the need for a “new energy paradigm� in which energy efficiency is crucial and where the cost of energy becomes a much bigger proportion of income, and the need to change our whole infrastructure- which could take many years.
In small groups, delegates were invited to write some advertising copy for different businesses in a new energy environment in 2016: by now well past Oil Peak, energy costs are rising and capital projects cut, and there is far less movement of goods around the world. Small businesses may still be doing well, able to adapt to changing circumstances. A wealth of ideas were discussed, although there was scepticism amongst some delegates that society could be changed so dramatically in just 10 years. Philip Boucher-Hayes collated the ideas at the end as “Business Threats and Opportunities�.
The conference was a great success, bringing together many experts and business people from different sectors. The emphasis on the panel on renewable technologies may have masked the deeper structural changes needed as we move further along the downward post-peak energy curve: as Dr. Campbell had pointed out in his opening address, the embodied energy in all manufactured goods, and specifically in food, presents perhaps an even bigger challenge than keeping the lights on, and will require far-reaching changes in every part of society.
Graham Strouts www.zone5.org. graham@zone5.org