20 Mar 2006
It’s Peak Gas we need to worry about, not Peak Oil…
, which promises to do for the UK what The Oil Drum has done for the US and the rest of the world. Chris Vernon’s insights on the gas crisis have been very illuminating and I recommend it highly. So why is peak gas a more pressing issue than peak oil?](/wp-content/uploads/gas1.jpg'?phpMyAdmin=ywTI6M3uGhTA2DrWfpYkXoeHMu5 title='gas1' ><img class='inthepageright colorbox-270' src='/wp-content/uploads/thumb-gas1.jpg' title='gas1' alt='gas1' /></a>It seems despite all the talk of peak oil, that the UK’s downfall might actually end up coming about from peak gas. This last week has been quite extraordinary, with the beginnings of a real crisis for the UK energy sector, not that, unless you were reading the Guardian over the last week, you would actually have heard much about it. <span id=){kind=link}
 the whole global economy stays reasonably intact the UK will be okay for oil, demand destruction will come from elsewhere. Also, virtually all oil is used in transport in the UK, most in personal cars. It wouldn’t be hard to cut our oil use in half and still maintain a resemblance of business as usual.</p>
<p>>Gas on the other hand, we can’t import it from the other side of the world since it is very expensive and hard to move, we operate in a much smaller regional gas market of Europe and Russia. Unlike with the global oil market we can’t afford to outbid all the other countries in Europe. Gas is mainly used for heating and cooking domestically and generating electricity industrially. It would be very hard to cut out gas use by half, much harder than cutting our oil use.</p>
<p>>So – it’s easier for the UK so source more than it’s fair share of oil than it is for gas and we’re more reliant on gas than oil. That’s why I think gas is the UK’s problem not oil.</p>
<p><a href= "gas4")
There, in a nutshell is our dilemma. There are other things we can learn from the crisis too. The whole thing offers a few pointers as to how those that run the show will respond when the larger looming energy crisis arrives. Indeed, this may well be the beginnings of that crisis. Rather like after [9/11](http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8260059923762628848&q=loose+change+2″911″) where everyone started saying “well, who could have predicted that such a thing would ever happen” despite their desks being littered with such warnings, a cold winter has triggered a gas crisis, and even the usually reliable [Guardian](http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1730310,00.html”Guardian”) writes “the British gas supply market has been caught out by unexpectedly cold weather”. Funny that, I’ve been reading reports in the media, the Guardian included, predicting that this was to be a particularly cold winter since the early Autumn. Rather than, at that point, deciding to do something to actually address the problem (not that his list of options was exactly lengthy), UK Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks decided, no doubt after in depth deliberation, to stick his head in the sand, telling the nation in November that “the UK is awash with gas”.
, agreeing with Sir Digby Jones, the CBI’s director general (isn’t that a great picture?) who said that the fiasco underlined the fact that warnings The Confederation of British Industry gave about shortages last November were well founded and should not have been dismissed by ministers as “scaremongering”. He said;</p>
<p>>”UK energy supplies are seriously overstretched. We have got away with it so far but surely the energy policy of a major economy should not rely on ‘getting away with it’.”</p>
<p>Indeed. Of course, like most things (again, it’s my age…) , it’s all Thatcher’s fault. The ‘Dash for Gas’ which fortuitously means the UK not having to try to hard to meet its Kyoto Protocol commitments, was not introduced for environmental reasons, but to break the National Union of Mineworkers but reducing UK dependence on coal. As a result the UK has become over dependent on gas, without thinking ahead to the time beyond its cheap availability. As with oil, we have wasted this precious once-off gift, and now, we are looking a future of rapidly depleting fuel reserves square in the face. Even Ken Livingstone’s visionary and bold [plan to decentralise London's energy system](http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/MultimediaFiles/Live/FullReport/7465.pdf”London”) uses gas to power the combined heat and power systems, although it does of course use that gas far more efficiently than at present. </p>
<p>So here we are, with a 50% probability of a gas emergency over the next few days. As it is, [some industry has had to start reducing production](http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1730891,00.html”business”). Terra Nitrogen has suspended some UK manufacturing (nitrogen fertilisers for agriculture use a lot of natural gas to make) and other large manufacturers are following suit. The wholesale price of gas quadrupled when the Gas Balancing Alert was issued, meaning bills to domestic customers will almost certainly rise yet again. </p>
<p>Keep an eye on this over the next couple of weeks. It promises to be very interesting. The most reliable sources of information are [The Oil Drum UK](http://uk.theoildrum.com/”UKTOD”) and the [Gas Issues blog](http://gasissues.blogspot.com/”gasissues”). It turns out however, that the real thing we have to worry about is not peak oil, peak gas, or peak uranium, but [peak chocolate](http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,25689-2079799,00.html”PeakChoc”). The Times reports;</p>
<p>>With chocolate consumption increasing at a rate of 25 per cent a year in the Asia-Pacific region, and 30 per cent in China, chocolate makers fear that coco- bean growers will not be able to keep up with demand. The unstoppable growth of China has aroused fears of future conflicts over natural resources such as oil, gas and water. Now a new and unforeseen catastrophe presents itself: global chocolate wars.</p>
<p>Aha … **now** I’ve got you worried….</p>
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Gareth_Doutch
20 Mar 11:53am
Interesting what you say about the “dash for gas”, Rob. It seems that nobody ever imagined that private companies would be in it to extract maximum profit, and leave the taxpayer to pick up the tab for them once it was over.
Also, in the parliament discussion on gas issues (Parliament Debates Gas Situation – link at bottom.) Alan Johnson (Secretary of State, DTI) came up with this gem:
“The hon. Gentleman asks what Government are doing. The one thing that the Government should not do is interfere in the market.”
The industrialists want the government to fix it, and the government doesn’t want to interfere with the market.
It’s like watching tennis doubles, where both partners leave the ball, because they think the other has it covered. eek!
James
20 Mar 9:38pm
It’s peak everything. Of course, it was chocolate that sealed it for me.
Time we hit Peak People and went into baby production decline.
Too many people chasing too little of everything.
ding dong
20 Mar 10:33pm
Or the good ol game of singles tennis where both opponents decide to quit the game while the poor paying spectators look on impotently……….and the buggers still get paid!
Clive
21 Mar 12:06am
Time to get building those wind farms, if we are to have any chance of keeping the lights on until cheap, abundent and safe atomic power comes on line, we need those turbines like no tomorrow!
Clive
)
Gareth_Doutch
21 Mar 12:33pm
Well said ding dong.
My comment implied some sort of responsibility towards the people of the nation on behalf of the government / utilities. Which, I suppose, is the perception of most people in this country.
Peak oil & gas will expose the truth.
Prof. Goose (TOD)
21 Mar 3:35pm
Rob, thanks for the kind words…we’re doing what we can!
Kudos to you on making Transition Culture a good read. Keep it up.
Randy Park
21 Mar 4:04pm
Let us know (here in Canada) when you have this figured out – looks like we will be (or are at) peak gas real soon too.
Gareth_Doutch
21 Mar 4:21pm
Can carrier pigeons fly that far?
Junkbox
21 Mar 10:07pm
Uh, Gareth they might, but I think that would take a few years…lol…
Peak Oil, Peak gas, either way we are up a creek without a paddle. The thing to do is just survive the best you can, because the opt.’s are to sink or swim. Me I’ll swim until I just can’t swim no more. In other words prepare for the worse.
Nullabor
22 Mar 1:39am
What concerns me is that most people overlook the fact that we will have to use our depleting oil reserves to bring the alternative energy sources on line. Wind farms are fine, but what about the power to produce the steel to make the columns and blades, the power for the trucks and cranes to move and erect the turbines into place, the power to build the infrastructure to deliver the electricity, its the same with oil that will be used to build a nuclear power station or heating cane to produce a litre of ethanol. I think more people need to grasp this point.
Jason Cole
22 Mar 8:37am
Julian Darley made the point a few years ago in his book “High Noon For Natural Gas”. It’s an excellent read.
W.G. Carr
22 Mar 6:47pm
The UK is getting what it so richly deserves for supporting the US invasion of Iraq. Payment for Arab oil and gas should be in gold and silver only for the UK and the US, at the rate of 1 ounce of gold per barrel of oil, or 60 troy ounces of silver per barrel of oil, with similar pricing for natural gas. The world does not need the US-UK parasites sucking up all the good stuff in exchange for paper money that is printed by the ton for next to nothing. Let the Limmy’s freeze.
Gareth Doutch
22 Mar 9:21pm
The people who will be affected worst by this will be the poorest.
They are the ones with the least democratic voice in the UK & USA.
They are also the ones who opposed the invasion.
It’s the wealthy & powerful who pushed for the war.
They are the ones out of the danger of sliding into poverty, they may even further consolidate power.
Peak oil & gas will not be poetic justice.
bunter of greyfriars
24 Mar 9:10am
If we could trap and use the gas coming out of our MPs proverbial butts maybe we can delay peak gas by some 2 weeks?! Food for thought.
P Shaw
29 Aug 12:58pm
HEating or Eating Or Driving or generally living this winter – what to do what to do